NBA games

IND @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
109–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND22233430109
OKC32272833120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home OKC
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 28 6 5
T.J. McConnell 22 18 4 4
Aaron Nesmith S 25 14 6 0
Myles Turner S 25 13 6 1
Obi Toppin 22 12 4 1
Andrew Nembhard S 36 7 3 3
Bennedict Mathurin 22 7 8 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 4 7 6
Tony Bradley 12 4 4 0
Johnny Furphy 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 35 40 6 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 31 2 10
Aaron Wiggins 22 14 5 0
Cason Wallace 17 11 2 0
Luguentz Dort S 32 9 8 3
Chet Holmgren S 34 9 11 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 21 4 8 4
Alex Caruso 29 2 2 2
Kenrich Williams 11 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes dunk (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
15%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
8 Myles Turner IND
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
33%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 4.7 6.4
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.9 5.9 4.9
3 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 5.9 3.7
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.0 5.7 8.6
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.1 7.7 1.6
6 Myles Turner IND 13.4 4.3 1.8
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.2 3.2 3.5
8 Alex Caruso OKC 11.2 2.9 1.8
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.9 4.6 1.1
10 Obi Toppin IND 8.8 4.6 1.2
11 Bennedict Mathurin IND 8.8 3.1 1.1
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.4 3.4 1.3
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.3 2.5 3.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.0 2.8 2.3
15 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 6.1 5.7 1.1
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.2 4.6 0.7
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.2 1.7 1.1
18 Isaiah Joe OKC 4.0 1.5 0.5
19 Ben Sheppard IND 3.7 1.4 0.7
20 Dillon Jones OKC 3.1 1.7 0.7
21 Ajay Mitchell OKC 3.0 0.7 0.4
22 Thomas Bryant IND 3.0 1.3 0.3
23 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.0 1.5 0.6
24 Jaylin Williams OKC 2.7 1.4 0.9
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.4 1.5 0.6
26 Jarace Walker IND 2.3 1.0 0.6
27 Tony Bradley IND 2.0 2.7 0.3
28 Ousmane Dieng OKC 1.5 0.5 0.4
29 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.