NBA games

OKC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
111–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC34232331111
IND35252717104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home IND
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 40 35 3 0
Jalen Williams S 36 27 7 3
Alex Caruso 30 20 3 0
Chet Holmgren S 37 14 15 1
Luguentz Dort S 33 6 3 0
Kenrich Williams 11 4 3 1
Cason Wallace 19 2 2 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 21 2 6 3
Aaron Wiggins 8 1 0 1
Isaiah Joe 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 20 8 5
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 18 2 7
Obi Toppin 29 17 7 1
Myles Turner S 30 12 2 2
Andrew Nembhard S 36 10 2 2
Aaron Nesmith S 30 8 9 2
T.J. McConnell 18 8 1 2
Bennedict Mathurin 14 8 2 0
Ben Sheppard 12 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes driving layup (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Myles Turner IND
8%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
29%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.0 4.7 5.6
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.2 6.0 3.7
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.8 6.2 8.7
4 Jalen Williams OKC 22.1 5.9 5.2
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 7.1 1.4
6 Myles Turner IND 13.7 4.6 1.8
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.3 3.5 3.7
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.2 5.3 1.2
9 Alex Caruso OKC 10.0 2.7 1.8
10 Bennedict Mathurin IND 9.1 2.6 1.2
11 Obi Toppin IND 8.8 4.3 1.4
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.7 3.3 1.2
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.0 2.6 3.5
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.2 3.1 2.2
15 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 6.8 6.0 1.0
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.4 4.7 0.8
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.6 1.9 1.1
18 Isaiah Joe OKC 4.3 1.6 0.5
19 Ben Sheppard IND 4.2 1.7 0.8
20 Thomas Bryant IND 3.9 1.8 0.5
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.5 1.8 0.5
22 Dillon Jones OKC 3.4 1.8 0.7
23 Ajay Mitchell OKC 3.3 0.8 0.4
24 Jaylin Williams OKC 2.8 1.5 0.9
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.7 1.6 0.7
26 Jarace Walker IND 2.3 1.0 0.6
27 Tony Bradley IND 2.1 2.7 0.4
28 Ousmane Dieng OKC 1.7 0.6 0.4
29 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.