NBA games

OKC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
107–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC32282918107
IND24402032116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home IND
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 36 26 6 3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 42 24 8 4
Chet Holmgren S 35 20 10 2
Luguentz Dort S 36 12 4 0
Alex Caruso 32 8 5 4
Cason Wallace S 24 7 4 1
Isaiah Joe 4 6 0 0
Isaiah Hartenstein 18 4 3 0
Aaron Wiggins 10 0 2 2
Kenrich Williams 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 22 27 4 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 22 9 11
Pascal Siakam S 32 21 6 4
T.J. McConnell 15 10 1 5
Myles Turner S 30 9 2 1
Andrew Nembhard S 33 8 4 1
Obi Toppin 28 8 6 1
Aaron Nesmith S 22 7 2 0
Ben Sheppard 18 4 2 0
Thomas Bryant 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
18%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.0 4.8 6.6
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 6.1 3.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.0 5.9 8.2
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.8 5.9 5.1
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.8 6.9 1.4
6 Myles Turner IND 14.6 4.9 1.8
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.1 3.3 4.4
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.0 5.1 1.5
9 Alex Caruso OKC 9.6 2.6 1.8
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.8 3.2 1.4
11 Obi Toppin IND 8.8 4.2 1.4
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 2.7 3.7
13 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 7.9 6.3 1.2
14 Bennedict Mathurin IND 7.1 2.3 1.0
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.8 2.7 2.2
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.3 4.8 0.8
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.0 2.2 1.0
18 Ben Sheppard IND 4.3 1.7 0.8
19 Dillon Jones OKC 3.7 2.0 0.9
20 Isaiah Joe OKC 3.6 1.5 0.5
21 Ajay Mitchell OKC 3.6 1.0 0.6
22 Thomas Bryant IND 3.4 1.7 0.5
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.3 1.7 1.1
24 Johnny Furphy IND 3.1 1.9 0.9
25 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.0 1.6 0.5
26 Jarace Walker IND 2.4 1.0 0.6
27 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.1 0.8 0.5
28 Tony Bradley IND 2.0 2.7 0.4
29 James Johnson IND 1.8 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.