NBA games

IND @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
107–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND20213333107
OKC26333430123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home OKC
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 17 3 6
Myles Turner S 27 16 4 4
Pascal Siakam S 30 15 7 4
Bennedict Mathurin 22 14 2 1
Aaron Nesmith S 26 14 4 0
Andrew Nembhard S 32 11 4 4
T.J. McConnell 18 11 3 6
Ben Sheppard 14 3 1 0
Obi Toppin 19 3 5 2
James Johnson 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 34 5 8
Alex Caruso 27 20 3 1
Jalen Williams S 34 19 5 5
Aaron Wiggins 21 18 4 1
Chet Holmgren S 28 15 6 1
Cason Wallace S 23 4 3 1
Luguentz Dort S 26 3 2 1
Jaylin Williams 2 3 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein 22 3 8 4
Ajay Mitchell 3 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes driving layup (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
36%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.4 4.8 6.7
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.8 5.9 3.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.7 5.5 8.1
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.4 5.8 5.3
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.4 7.6 1.5
6 Myles Turner IND 13.9 5.1 1.6
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.0 3.4 4.2
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.5 5.4 1.4
9 Alex Caruso OKC 9.6 2.7 1.9
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.4 3.3 1.4
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.0 6.9 1.2
12 Obi Toppin IND 8.9 3.9 1.5
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 2.9 3.8
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.7 3.0 2.5
15 Bennedict Mathurin IND 7.6 2.2 1.0
16 Quenton Jackson IND 5.4 1.7 1.9
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.2 4.9 0.7
18 Branden Carlson OKC 4.7 2.3 0.6
19 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.7 2.1 1.1
20 Ben Sheppard IND 4.6 1.8 0.8
21 Ajay Mitchell OKC 4.4 1.2 0.7
22 Isaiah Joe OKC 4.0 1.6 0.6
23 Thomas Bryant IND 3.8 1.8 0.5
24 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.7 2.1 0.6
25 Adam Flagler OKC 3.7 1.7 1.0
26 RayJ Dennis IND 3.6 1.6 1.2
27 Dillon Jones OKC 3.2 1.9 0.7
28 Enrique Freeman IND 3.1 2.2 0.5
29 Alex Ducas OKC 2.8 1.4 0.6
30 Jarace Walker IND 2.5 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.