NBA games

IND @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
111–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND20253135111
OKC29282825110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home OKC
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 19 10 3
Obi Toppin 25 17 5 2
Myles Turner S 28 15 9 0
Andrew Nembhard S 32 14 4 6
Tyrese Haliburton S 39 14 10 6
Aaron Nesmith S 31 10 12 1
T.J. McConnell 17 9 1 4
Bennedict Mathurin 16 5 3 2
Thomas Bryant 8 5 0 0
Ben Sheppard 9 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 40 38 5 3
Jalen Williams S 36 17 4 6
Luguentz Dort S 36 15 4 1
Alex Caruso 28 11 6 2
Isaiah Hartenstein 17 9 9 0
Cason Wallace S 33 6 2 1
Chet Holmgren S 24 6 6 0
Isaiah Joe 11 5 0 0
Aaron Wiggins 9 3 0 0
Kenrich Williams 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
18%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
7 Myles Turner IND
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
88%
Jumper
4%
Layup
5%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.8 5.5 6.7
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.6 5.5 3.3
3 Jalen Williams OKC 21.8 5.5 5.1
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.8 5.5 7.9
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 8.6 1.3
6 Myles Turner IND 14.3 5.1 1.5
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.4 4.6 1.2
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.2 3.6 4.8
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 8.4 6.9 1.2
10 Alex Caruso OKC 8.0 1.9 1.6
11 Obi Toppin IND 7.4 3.5 1.1
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.4 2.9 1.2
13 Bennedict Mathurin IND 7.2 1.7 0.7
14 T.J. McConnell IND 7.1 2.7 3.4
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.0 2.6 2.1
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.1 4.9 0.7
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.0 2.0 0.9
18 Ajay Mitchell OKC 3.7 0.7 0.8
19 Ben Sheppard IND 3.6 1.4 0.5
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.6 2.5 0.4
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.5 2.0 0.7
22 Thomas Bryant IND 2.7 1.6 0.3
23 Jarace Walker IND 2.7 1.1 0.6
24 Isaiah Joe OKC 2.7 1.2 0.4
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.6 1.6 0.6
26 Jaylin Williams OKC 2.4 1.3 0.9
27 Tony Bradley IND 2.2 3.1 0.3
28 Ousmane Dieng OKC 1.5 0.5 0.4
29 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.