NBA games

MIL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
111–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28302330111
NO31222529107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home NO
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 40 29 5 1
Brook Lopez S 34 20 12 3
Kevin Porter Jr. S 34 20 8 4
Kyle Kuzma S 30 17 4 4
Ryan Rollins 28 14 7 10
AJ Green 25 6 3 1
Taurean Prince S 29 3 4 3
Pete Nance 14 2 5 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 6 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Antonio Reeves S 37 23 2 2
Yves Missi S 30 18 12 3
Lester Quinones 25 17 1 3
Bruce Brown S 32 16 4 9
Keion Brooks Jr. S 32 13 10 1
Karlo Matkovic 19 11 5 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 16 5 6 2
Jamal Cain 22 4 6 0
Elfrid Payton S 28 0 2 10

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes driving layup (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brook Lopez MIL
14%
2 Yves Missi NO
14%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
14%
4 Kelly Olynyk NO
11%
5 Keion Brooks Jr. NO
10%
6 Bruce Brown NO
10%
7 Taurean Prince MIL
9%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
9 Jose Alvarado NO
9%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
24%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma MIL 17.5 4.9 3.6
2 Brook Lopez MIL 16.7 5.1 2.4
3 Kelly Olynyk NO 13.1 5.2 4.0
4 Jose Alvarado NO 13.1 3.2 5.4
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 12.0 4.5 4.0
6 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.7 2.4 1.4
7 Bruce Brown NO 11.3 4.6 2.3
8 Ryan Rollins MIL 10.9 3.0 3.4
9 Yves Missi NO 10.9 9.9 1.5
10 Karlo Matkovic NO 10.3 6.0 1.7
11 Taurean Prince MIL 9.9 3.1 1.9
12 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 8.5 3.9 1.7
13 Antonio Reeves NO 8.4 1.7 1.1
14 AJ Green MIL 7.5 2.5 1.8
15 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 6.7 3.2 1.2
16 Elfrid Payton NO 5.1 3.2 5.4
17 Jamal Cain NO 4.3 1.6 0.9
18 Lester Quinones NO 4.1 1.6 0.8
19 Kylor Kelley NO 3.5 2.6 0.6
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.6 0.6
21 Tyler Smith MIL 2.7 1.1 0.6
22 Pete Nance MIL 2.5 1.0 0.6
23 Chris Livingston MIL 2.4 1.5 0.5
24 Stanley Umude MIL 2.3 1.3 0.5
25 Jamaree Bouyea MIL 2.2 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.