NBA games

SA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
109–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA22292434109
LAL32332931125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 28 23 8 3
Devin Vassell S 34 17 8 2
Jeremy Sochan 26 15 3 1
Keldon Johnson 28 11 4 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 13 10 2 0
Chris Paul S 22 9 6 8
Blake Wesley 22 7 3 5
Harrison Barnes S 19 7 2 3
Julian Champagnie 29 6 4 5
Bismack Biyombo S 20 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 36 30 7 6
Luka Doncic S 34 21 9 14
Dorian Finney-Smith S 28 15 3 1
Jordan Goodwin S 33 15 4 3
Dalton Knecht 20 13 3 3
Gabe Vincent 28 11 2 1
Jaxson Hayes S 28 9 11 3
Christian Koloko 9 4 2 1
Bronny James 3 3 0 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 15 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 16-foot jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
14%
2 Devin Vassell SA
11%
3 Jaxson Hayes LAL
10%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
5 Stephon Castle SA
10%
6 Bismack Biyombo SA
8%
7 Chris Paul SA
8%
8 Alex Len LAL
8%
9 Jordan Goodwin LAL
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
7%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.2 9.4 10.5
2 Austin Reaves LAL 22.3 5.0 5.9
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.8 4.4 4.7
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.4 5.3 3.6
5 Keldon Johnson SA 15.2 5.3 2.1
6 Dalton Knecht LAL 12.2 3.4 1.7
7 Harrison Barnes SA 12.0 2.7 1.4
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.5 5.9 2.2
9 Jaxson Hayes LAL 10.5 7.0 1.6
10 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.0 1.9 1.8
11 Chris Paul SA 8.1 2.4 5.7
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.8 4.2 1.4
13 Julian Champagnie SA 7.7 3.2 1.4
14 Jordan Goodwin LAL 6.6 3.8 1.3
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.6 5.5 1.6
16 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.3 4.5 1.3
17 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.0 2.6 0.8
18 Shake Milton LAL 4.4 2.0 1.2
19 Christian Koloko LAL 3.8 3.0 0.9
20 Markieff Morris LAL 3.6 1.4 1.1
21 Blake Wesley SA 3.4 1.2 1.2
22 Bronny James LAL 3.4 1.4 0.8
23 Cam Reddish LAL 3.4 1.7 0.8
24 Alex Len LAL 2.4 2.4 0.9
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.3 0.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.