NBA games

SHQ @ CHK

NBA Chase Center ·Final
41–25
Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 1 (CHK) / 1 (SHQ) games this season
SHQ away
home CHK
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 11 15 3 2
Stephen Curry S 11 12 4 1
Kyrie Irving 8 7 3 2
Jaylen Brown 7 4 2 0
James Harden S 8 3 2 4
Damian Lillard S 3 0 0 1
Kevin Durant S 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama 7 11 3 0
Karl-Anthony Towns S 11 8 4 1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 6 4 1 0
Nikola Jokic S 10 2 4 2
Pascal Siakam S 3 0 1 0
Donovan Mitchell S 11 0 3 2
Trae Young 5 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 1:38 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry SHQ
11%
2 LeBron James SHQ
10%
3 Anthony Davis SHQ
10%
4 Donovan Mitchell CHK
9%
5 Giannis Antetokounmpo CHK
8%
6 James Harden SHQ
7%
7 Kevin Durant SHQ
7%
8 Pascal Siakam CHK
7%
9 Karl-Anthony Towns CHK
7%
10 Nikola Jokic CHK
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
64%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
18%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo CHK 15.1 9.4 5.2
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander CHK 13.3 1.8 2.4
3 Jayson Tatum SHQ 11.5 3.5 2.8
4 Anthony Davis SHQ 11.0 9.6 1.2
5 Alperen Sengun CHK 10.9 6.3 2.0
6 Stephen Curry SHQ 10.6 2.1 1.9
7 Pascal Siakam CHK 10.2 3.2 1.2
8 Victor Wembanyama CHK 10.2 7.3 1.1
9 LeBron James SHQ 9.9 6.8 4.1
10 James Harden SHQ 9.4 2.6 5.5
11 Jaylen Brown SHQ 9.3 3.2 1.8
12 Nikola Jokic CHK 9.2 5.6 4.4
13 Karl-Anthony Towns CHK 8.9 5.8 1.0
14 Donovan Mitchell CHK 8.7 1.9 3.2
15 Kevin Durant SHQ 8.4 2.1 1.6
16 Damian Lillard SHQ 8.3 2.6 3.0
17 Kyrie Irving SHQ 8.0 3.1 2.1
18 Trae Young CHK 7.9 1.8 5.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.