NBA games

CHA @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
88–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2120212688
LAC32333028123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home LAC
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 25 18 15 7
LaMelo Ball S 31 16 2 5
Nick Smith Jr. 20 9 1 1
Josh Green S 27 8 1 2
Wendell Moore Jr. 21 8 6 2
Miles Bridges S 25 7 4 3
Marcus Garrett 17 7 1 2
Moussa Diabate 13 6 3 1
DaQuan Jeffries S 36 5 5 3
Jusuf Nurkic 12 4 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 31 31 10 7
Kawhi Leonard S 27 23 6 5
Ivica Zubac S 28 17 14 8
Derrick Jones Jr. S 28 12 3 0
Amir Coffey 20 9 3 1
Norman Powell S 23 7 1 0
Drew Eubanks 12 7 9 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 19 7 4 1
Patty Mills 7 5 0 0
Nicolas Batum 15 3 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell LAC
14%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
3 James Harden LAC
12%
4 Mark Williams CHA
12%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
6 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
8 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
6%
9 Nicolas Batum LAC
6%
10 Josh Green CHA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
34%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 26.4 5.3 9.8
2 Miles Bridges CHA 25.2 8.3 5.0
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.8 6.0 3.9
4 Norman Powell LAC 21.2 4.1 2.5
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 21.1 11.6 2.8
6 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.8 5.2 7.4
7 Mark Williams CHA 15.6 10.5 2.0
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 14.4 4.1 3.5
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.3 2.7 3.0
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.1 3.3 1.2
11 Amir Coffey LAC 9.6 2.2 1.5
12 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 7.6 2.6 1.2
13 Nicolas Batum LAC 7.5 3.4 1.2
14 Josh Green CHA 7.2 2.7 2.1
15 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.2 6.4 2.8
16 Ben Simmons LAC 6.8 4.6 4.9
17 Seth Curry CHA 5.7 2.1 1.0
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.0 3.9 1.0
19 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 4.2 2.2 0.8
20 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.7 2.6 0.7
21 Patty Mills LAC 3.2 1.5 0.8
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.2 1.5 0.7
23 Malachi Flynn CHA 2.9 0.8 1.0
24 Kobe Brown LAC 2.9 1.6 0.7
25 Taj Gibson CHA 2.8 4.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.