NBA games

HOU @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
100–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU22273318100
ATL2723232396

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home ATL
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 33 25 7 0
Alperen Sengun S 29 18 10 2
Jae'Sean Tate 25 16 3 0
Amen Thompson S 31 11 5 3
Dillon Brooks S 32 11 2 1
Aaron Holiday 17 8 1 4
Fred VanVleet S 36 5 4 6
Jock Landale 16 4 6 2
Cam Whitmore 20 2 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 34 21 3 9
De'Andre Hunter 29 16 5 0
Vit Krejci S 36 13 5 2
Dyson Daniels S 37 12 10 6
Mouhamed Gueye S 22 11 7 0
Keaton Wallace 22 7 1 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 28 7 6 1
Larry Nance Jr. 20 6 2 1
Garrison Mathews 12 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
5 Jalen Green HOU
8%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
7 David Roddy ATL
6%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
9 Vit Krejci ATL
6%
10 Larry Nance Jr. ATL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 25.5 3.2 9.8
2 Jalen Green HOU 24.4 4.2 4.2
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.3 10.4 5.5
4 Amen Thompson HOU 19.8 10.5 4.6
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.5 5.7 4.1
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 15.6 3.3 5.9
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.4 3.1 2.3
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.1 10.1 3.4
9 Vit Krejci ATL 11.6 3.2 3.8
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.4 3.1 1.8
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.4 5.2 1.5
12 Tari Eason HOU 10.2 5.4 1.5
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.7 3.7 1.4
14 Clint Capela ATL 9.0 8.6 1.1
15 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 8.3 5.5 1.7
16 Keaton Wallace ATL 7.8 2.3 3.3
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 6.0 2.1 1.3
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.6 1.1
19 Steven Adams HOU 4.7 6.3 1.1
20 David Roddy ATL 4.7 2.8 1.0
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.6 2.3 0.8
22 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.1 2.5 0.8
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.1 1.1 0.3
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.0 1.3 0.5
25 Nate Williams HOU 2.1 0.6 0.4
26 Reed Sheppard HOU 1.7 1.4 0.6
27 Jock Landale HOU 1.4 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.