NBA games

CHA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
100–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA21163231100
LAL2820183197

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home LAL
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 33 29 6 0
LaMelo Ball S 33 27 5 6
Nick Smith Jr. S 29 12 2 1
Mark Williams S 29 10 9 2
Seth Curry 16 10 5 0
DaQuan Jeffries 15 5 0 1
Josh Green S 34 4 3 1
Tidjane Salaun 18 3 6 0
Elfrid Payton 15 0 3 2
Jusuf Nurkic 18 0 8 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 38 26 7 11
Rui Hachimura S 39 17 8 3
Luka Doncic S 33 14 11 8
Dorian Finney-Smith 28 12 5 3
Austin Reaves S 27 8 2 2
Jaxson Hayes S 18 8 4 0
Gabe Vincent 20 6 3 2
Dalton Knecht 13 3 5 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 13 3 4 0
Alex Len 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Josh Green makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
12%
2 LeBron James LAL
10%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Mark Williams CHA
8%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
6%
8 Luka Doncic LAL
6%
9 Jaxson Hayes LAL
6%
10 Elfrid Payton CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
18%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.1 8.7 8.7
2 Luka Doncic LAL 25.7 8.5 7.5
3 Miles Bridges CHA 22.8 8.4 4.1
4 Austin Reaves LAL 22.7 5.3 6.4
5 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.8 4.5 7.0
6 Mark Williams CHA 19.6 10.3 3.0
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.9 4.6 1.6
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.0 2.6 2.7
9 Josh Green CHA 9.4 2.1 1.4
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.5 7.9 1.2
11 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.5 1.6 2.2
12 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 8.0 7.0 2.4
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.4 2.1 0.7
14 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.3 2.7 1.3
15 Seth Curry CHA 6.0 1.5 1.0
16 Elfrid Payton CHA 5.8 2.9 5.3
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.6 4.2 1.1
18 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.6 3.2 0.9
19 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 4.3 2.1 1.2
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.5 4.9 0.8
21 Shake Milton LAL 3.2 1.4 1.4
22 Taj Gibson CHA 2.9 4.1 0.5
23 Cam Reddish LAL 2.7 1.5 0.7
24 Christian Koloko LAL 2.4 2.1 0.5
25 Markieff Morris LAL 2.3 0.9 0.6
26 Bronny James LAL 1.9 0.8 0.5
27 Alex Len LAL 1.5 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.