NBA games

DAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
143–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL46353329143
GS33413326133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home GS
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 45 11 13
Klay Thompson S 29 29 5 4
Kyrie Irving S 35 21 3 8
Quentin Grimes 19 14 2 0
P.J. Washington S 35 13 4 1
Daniel Gafford 17 10 9 1
Dereck Lively II S 30 8 7 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 13 3 3 2
Kessler Edwards 1 0 0 0
Jazian Gortman 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 34 29 3 4
Stephen Curry S 35 26 5 10
Draymond Green 29 21 7 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 30 20 3 6
Lindy Waters III 21 12 5 2
Buddy Hield S 27 9 0 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 14 5 6 3
Gary Payton II 11 4 4 1
Kevon Looney S 21 4 3 6
Brandin Podziemski 16 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes driving layup (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
11%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
9%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
9%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
7 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
8 Gary Payton II GS
7%
9 Quentin Grimes DAL
7%
10 De'Anthony Melton GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
32%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.5 8.6 8.3
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.7 4.9 6.8
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.1 4.8 5.7
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 19.6 4.4 2.6
5 P.J. Washington DAL 16.5 7.9 3.4
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.4 4.9 2.3
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.9 2.8 4.8
8 Quentin Grimes DAL 12.8 4.3 2.2
9 Draymond Green GS 11.0 7.1 6.2
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.8 6.7 1.4
11 Klay Thompson DAL 10.6 3.3 1.5
12 Buddy Hield GS 10.6 3.3 1.5
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.1 4.6 3.4
14 De'Anthony Melton GS 10.0 3.2 3.7
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.8 8.3 2.2
16 Lindy Waters III GS 6.5 3.2 1.5
17 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.2 4.6 1.3
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 6.7 1.6
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.0 3.6 1.3
20 Kyle Anderson GS 4.2 2.1 1.4
21 Jazian Gortman DAL 3.7 1.0 0.7
22 Reece Beekman GS 2.7 1.1 1.0
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.6 1.9 0.5
24 Pat Spencer GS 2.5 1.3 1.6
25 Dwight Powell DAL 1.7 1.4 0.6
26 Kessler Edwards DAL 1.5 0.5 0.3
27 Markieff Morris DAL 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.