NBA games

NY @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
100–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY22292425100
ORL2219262491

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ORL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 31 3 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 43 22 22 5
Mikal Bridges S 41 17 1 1
Josh Hart S 33 12 5 5
OG Anunoby S 37 7 5 1
Miles McBride 21 7 2 1
Precious Achiuwa 18 4 5 0
Cameron Payne 10 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moritz Wagner 26 32 6 1
Tristan da Silva S 32 20 3 2
Jalen Suggs S 32 9 5 8
Goga Bitadze S 25 8 11 1
Cole Anthony 9 4 2 5
Anthony Black 20 4 1 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 4 2 2
Caleb Houstan 6 3 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 15 3 3 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes driving layup (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 OG Anunoby NY
12%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 Goga Bitadze ORL
11%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
10%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
31%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.8 3.7 8.1
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.6 14.4 3.8
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 19.9 3.9 4.4
4 Mikal Bridges NY 17.1 3.4 3.0
5 OG Anunoby NY 16.6 4.7 2.0
6 Josh Hart NY 15.6 6.8 4.6
7 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.3 6.7 2.2
8 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.2 8.6 2.0
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.6 2.1 1.7
10 Miles McBride NY 9.2 2.8 2.8
11 Anthony Black ORL 8.3 3.1 2.5
12 Cameron Payne NY 7.9 2.2 2.6
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 7.9 6.0 2.0
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.9 6.1 1.4
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.1 2.8 0.9
16 Cole Anthony ORL 5.4 1.7 1.6
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.5 3.8 0.5
18 Jett Howard ORL 3.7 1.3 0.7
19 Trevelin Queen ORL 2.9 1.2 0.7
20 Jericho Sims NY 1.9 2.5 0.6
21 Tyler Kolek NY 1.8 0.7 0.5
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 1.7 0.6 0.4
23 Cory Joseph ORL 1.3 0.7 0.5
24 Matt Ryan NY 1.1 0.3 0.3
25 Jacob Toppin NY 0.8 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.