NBA games

DEN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
130–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN41342134130
SAC21473526129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SAC
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 38 28 2 6
Aaron Gordon S 31 24 7 2
Nikola Jokic S 38 20 14 13
Russell Westbrook S 35 18 9 10
Julian Strawther 23 13 4 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 11 10 1
Peyton Watson 17 9 4 1
Hunter Tyson 17 7 3 1
DeAndre Jordan 10 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 39 29 5 7
Domantas Sabonis S 41 28 14 6
Malik Monk S 34 25 6 10
DeMar DeRozan S 34 17 3 4
Doug McDermott S 27 16 1 0
Keon Ellis 33 12 6 1
Isaac Jones 6 2 1 0
Alex Len 2 0 0 0
Colby Jones 18 0 4 0
Jae Crowder 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Russell Westbrook · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Russell Westbrook makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
17%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
12%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
8 Malik Monk SAC
10%
9 Russell Westbrook DEN
0%
10 Hunter Tyson DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
18%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.1 11.9 9.9
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.3 13.2 6.4
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.0 5.0 7.0
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.2 4.5 4.1
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.8 6.6 3.5
6 Jamal Murray DEN 20.0 4.4 6.5
7 Malik Monk SAC 19.6 4.1 6.6
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.5 5.6 3.6
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.4 3.4 6.0
10 Peyton Watson DEN 9.2 3.6 1.4
11 Julian Strawther DEN 8.1 1.9 1.5
12 Keon Ellis SAC 5.3 2.1 1.3
13 Isaac Jones SAC 4.5 2.1 0.6
14 Jae Crowder SAC 4.1 2.0 0.7
15 Doug McDermott SAC 3.2 0.8 0.4
16 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.1 1.5 0.5
17 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.6 3.0 0.8
18 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.6 1.0 1.5
19 Orlando Robinson SAC 2.5 1.4 0.8
20 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.5 0.9 1.0
21 Colby Jones SAC 2.3 1.4 0.6
22 Alex Len SAC 2.2 1.7 0.7
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.7 0.7 0.4
24 Spencer Jones DEN 1.2 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.