NBA games

CLE @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
130–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE37353226130
BKN17233724101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BKN
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 23 21 5 2
Caris LeVert 19 19 1 4
Donovan Mitchell S 30 18 3 5
Georges Niang 25 17 9 2
Isaac Okoro S 20 12 1 1
Jarrett Allen S 24 12 8 4
Darius Garland S 24 11 0 6
Sam Merrill 24 7 0 3
Ty Jerome 16 5 3 6
JT Thor 5 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 28 22 1 5
Day'Ron Sharpe 20 15 7 1
Jalen Wilson 29 13 1 2
Ben Simmons S 31 10 4 8
Dorian Finney-Smith S 24 10 4 1
Trendon Watford 10 8 0 0
Nic Claxton S 23 8 4 2
Keon Johnson S 24 5 4 2
Shake Milton 17 5 5 1
Tyrese Martin 18 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ben Simmons · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Ben Simmons makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
2 Darius Garland CLE
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
6 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
9%
7 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
8 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.3 5.0 5.6
2 Darius Garland CLE 21.2 3.3 6.2
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 20.2 4.6 3.4
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.1 9.4 3.4
5 Caris LeVert CLE 13.1 3.3 4.0
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.8 9.6 2.0
7 Nic Claxton BKN 11.1 8.0 1.8
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.9 3.8 1.8
9 Shake Milton BKN 10.8 2.8 2.8
10 Ty Jerome CLE 10.2 2.2 2.8
11 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.6 3.5 1.6
12 Georges Niang CLE 8.8 3.9 1.6
13 Keon Johnson BKN 8.0 3.1 1.5
14 Trendon Watford BKN 7.7 3.2 1.1
15 Ziaire Williams BKN 7.5 3.3 1.2
16 Noah Clowney BKN 7.3 3.1 1.1
17 Sam Merrill CLE 7.2 2.5 1.7
18 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.9 2.6 1.7
19 Ben Simmons BKN 6.9 5.1 5.4
20 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.1 2.9 1.0
21 Dean Wade CLE 5.6 4.4 1.1
22 Tyrese Martin BKN 3.8 1.6 0.8
23 JT Thor CLE 3.6 1.3 0.3
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.1 2.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.