NBA games

CHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
122–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI33204227122
TOR25253437121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home TOR
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 32 24 5 3
Coby White S 35 19 0 5
Talen Horton-Tucker 25 15 3 2
Ayo Dosunmu S 40 12 5 5
Josh Giddey S 24 11 9 8
Julian Phillips 12 10 0 0
Jalen Smith 16 10 5 1
Lonzo Ball 23 8 6 7
Matas Buzelis 13 7 4 1
Patrick Williams S 21 6 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 37 32 5 9
Gradey Dick S 33 27 6 2
Ochai Agbaji S 31 15 3 0
Chris Boucher 21 11 10 0
Jamal Shead 12 10 4 6
Kelly Olynyk 13 7 3 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 24 6 3 2
Jakob Poeltl S 22 6 5 3
Jonathan Mogbo S 28 4 4 1
Davion Mitchell 16 3 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes layup (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
15%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
11%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
5 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
6 Bruno Fernando TOR
9%
7 Coby White CHI
9%
8 Jalen Smith CHI
8%
9 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
8%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
34%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 24.8 7.4 6.4
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.6 9.8 3.6
3 Gradey Dick TOR 17.8 4.1 2.2
4 Coby White CHI 17.1 4.1 4.4
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.1 3.7 5.7
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 15.1 10.6 2.8
7 Josh Giddey CHI 14.3 6.7 7.2
8 Patrick Williams CHI 12.2 4.1 2.6
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.9 3.5 1.7
10 Matas Buzelis CHI 8.6 4.0 1.1
11 Jalen Smith CHI 8.1 5.6 0.9
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.1 2.9 1.5
13 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 8.0 2.1 1.4
14 Chris Boucher TOR 7.1 3.5 0.6
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.7 1.9 3.5
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.6 4.6 1.8
17 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.3 3.0 3.0
18 Kelly Olynyk TOR 5.7 3.4 1.6
19 Julian Phillips CHI 5.3 2.3 0.7
20 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.8 2.0 1.1
21 Torrey Craig CHI 3.9 1.4 0.4
22 Jamal Shead TOR 3.9 1.0 1.6
23 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.6 3.1 1.1
24 D.J. Carton TOR 3.5 1.7 1.3
25 Chris Duarte CHI 2.2 1.1 0.3
26 Jevon Carter CHI 2.0 0.8 0.4
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.