NBA games

MIA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
124–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIA3227223310124
DET3330341711125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home DET
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 44 35 19 10
Tyler Herro S 41 23 4 1
Bam Adebayo S 41 15 8 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 13 1 4
Duncan Robinson S 24 13 0 1
Terry Rozier 34 11 5 6
Dru Smith 31 7 0 2
Kevin Love 12 4 5 1
Haywood Highsmith S 20 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley S 41 28 3 4
Cade Cunningham S 42 20 11 18
Ausar Thompson S 27 19 9 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 36 16 2 2
Jalen Duren S 32 9 16 2
Simone Fontecchio 24 9 2 2
Ronald Holland II 23 8 4 0
Marcus Sasser 21 6 0 3
Paul Reed 12 6 2 0
Isaiah Stewart 7 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
9%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.8 7.3 10.2
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.5 5.7 5.2
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.3 6.1 5.0
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.5 11.1 6.8
5 Jaden Ivey DET 17.4 3.8 4.5
6 Malik Beasley DET 14.3 3.5 2.3
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.5 2.8 2.8
8 Terry Rozier MIA 10.2 3.4 1.9
9 Jalen Duren DET 8.9 8.0 1.6
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.0 3.7 1.8
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.9 3.5 1.5
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 7.8 2.7 1.2
13 Marcus Sasser DET 7.5 1.4 2.2
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.0 2.8 1.1
15 Ronald Holland II DET 7.0 2.9 1.4
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.8 2.5 1.0
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.8 4.8 1.5
18 Dru Smith MIA 5.7 3.0 1.5
19 Kevin Love MIA 5.4 3.9 1.3
20 Ausar Thompson DET 5.4 2.8 2.2
21 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.0 3.3 1.2
22 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.7 2.0 1.0
23 Paul Reed DET 4.4 2.2 0.8
24 Alec Burks MIA 4.3 1.6 1.0
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.4 1.1 0.4
26 Kel'el Ware MIA 2.3 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.