NBA games

PHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
121–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI31234126121
CHA23263029108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHA
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 40 5 5
Paul George S 40 33 5 8
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 19 9 4
Andre Drummond S 28 9 15 1
Eric Gordon 26 9 1 1
Ricky Council IV 9 6 1 0
Kyle Lowry 18 3 1 1
KJ Martin S 21 2 2 0
Guerschon Yabusele 18 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 28 24 6 4
Nick Richards 15 19 5 0
LaMelo Ball S 26 15 5 11
Brandon Miller S 31 12 4 4
Josh Green S 30 10 2 0
Cody Martin 29 10 5 2
Isaiah Wong 14 7 2 0
Mark Williams S 17 7 3 3
Moussa Diabate 16 4 3 0
Vasilije Micic 16 0 1 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:56 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 8-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Paul George PHI
12%
4 Mark Williams CHA
10%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
6 Josh Green CHA
9%
7 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
8%
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
9 Vasilije Micic CHA
8%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
35%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 25.9 5.6 8.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.2 4.1 6.0
3 Brandon Miller CHA 22.8 6.1 3.5
4 Paul George PHI 17.7 5.3 5.2
5 Miles Bridges CHA 16.1 6.3 3.4
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.5 6.5 1.9
7 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.8 5.7 1.9
8 Nick Richards CHA 10.9 9.8 1.6
9 Vasilije Micic CHA 10.6 3.0 5.1
10 Josh Green CHA 9.8 3.1 1.7
11 Cody Martin CHA 8.8 5.2 2.6
12 Isaiah Wong CHA 8.6 3.4 2.5
13 KJ Martin PHI 8.5 3.4 1.2
14 Mark Williams CHA 7.7 5.4 1.1
15 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.7 4.4 1.3
16 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.9 2.7 1.0
17 Andre Drummond PHI 5.5 6.0 0.8
18 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.5 2.3 0.9
19 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.2 7.1 1.2
20 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.3 1.3 1.8
21 Seth Curry CHA 4.3 1.4 0.6
22 Kyle Lowry PHI 4.2 1.7 2.0
23 Taj Gibson CHA 3.0 2.7 0.7
24 Eric Gordon PHI 2.9 0.9 0.9
25 Justin Edwards PHI 2.5 1.1 0.3
26 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 2.5 1.0 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.