NBA games

MEM @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
110–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM20263133110
LAL30342230116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 25 5 2
Ja Morant S 31 20 7 6
Zach Edey 24 13 10 1
Luke Kennard 18 12 3 3
Jaylen Wells S 18 8 0 0
Desmond Bane S 28 7 7 7
Marcus Smart 29 7 3 3
Santi Aldama 19 6 3 0
Brandon Clarke S 13 5 5 1
Jay Huff 6 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 33 40 16 2
Austin Reaves S 36 19 2 8
LeBron James S 34 18 8 8
Cam Reddish 14 8 2 1
Rui Hachimura S 38 8 6 1
Max Christie S 29 7 2 1
D'Angelo Russell 17 7 3 2
Dalton Knecht 13 5 3 0
Gabe Vincent 14 3 2 0
Christian Koloko 12 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes 18-foot jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Ja Morant MEM
10%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
6 Brandon Clarke MEM
9%
7 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
9 Max Christie LAL
7%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
21%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 24.4 7.4 8.4
2 Ja Morant MEM 24.3 4.9 8.7
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.5 11.5 4.2
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.3 6.3 2.2
5 Austin Reaves LAL 17.0 3.3 4.8
6 Desmond Bane MEM 15.6 5.7 5.2
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 15.0 3.4 5.0
8 Santi Aldama MEM 14.2 7.5 2.8
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.5 5.0 2.0
10 Zach Edey MEM 11.6 7.7 1.5
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.4 3.8 2.2
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 10.4 7.3 1.5
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 10.4 5.3 1.4
14 Marcus Smart MEM 10.2 2.9 4.8
15 Max Christie LAL 9.6 3.2 1.9
16 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.2 3.3 4.7
17 Jay Huff MEM 8.4 3.6 1.1
18 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.0 3.8 2.9
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.4 2.1 1.5
20 Quincy Olivari LAL 5.7 2.2 0.8
21 Luke Kennard MEM 5.0 2.1 1.5
22 Cam Reddish LAL 4.7 2.0 1.1
23 Cam Spencer MEM 4.6 1.8 1.6
24 John Konchar MEM 3.5 2.7 0.9
25 Colin Castleton MEM 2.8 2.4 0.7
26 Christian Koloko LAL 2.7 2.9 0.5
27 Bronny James LAL 2.3 1.2 0.3
28 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.5 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.