NBA games

POR @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
109–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR21302830109
PHX33242633116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home PHX
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 37 20 4 5
Deni Avdija 28 17 7 3
Jerami Grant S 36 17 6 3
Toumani Camara S 32 14 7 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 12 5 5
Donovan Clingan S 19 10 9 3
Robert Williams III 17 8 3 1
Dalano Banton 14 7 4 4
Jabari Walker 6 2 2 0
Scoot Henderson 19 2 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 28 3 5
Kevin Durant S 36 20 7 7
Tyus Jones S 32 19 4 4
Royce O'Neale S 32 13 4 2
Grayson Allen 24 12 2 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 10 14 2
Ryan Dunn 15 4 2 0
Monte Morris 16 4 4 1
Oso Ighodaro 6 4 2 0
Josh Okogie 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
5 Jabari Walker POR
8%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
8 Robert Williams III POR
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
20%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.0 3.9 6.8
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.0 6.3 4.2
3 Anfernee Simons POR 19.4 3.6 5.4
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.1 3.9 3.0
5 Deni Avdija POR 17.0 5.9 3.8
6 Tyus Jones PHX 16.7 2.6 7.5
7 Deandre Ayton POR 15.0 9.0 1.5
8 Jerami Grant POR 14.4 3.7 2.6
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 13.3 5.6 2.2
10 Grayson Allen PHX 13.0 3.6 3.1
11 Scoot Henderson POR 12.0 3.0 5.3
12 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.9 9.4 1.6
13 Toumani Camara POR 10.3 4.5 1.9
14 Dalano Banton POR 9.6 2.8 2.9
15 Donovan Clingan POR 7.3 7.6 1.0
16 Robert Williams III POR 7.1 5.3 1.1
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.3 3.4 1.2
18 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.0 4.1 1.5
19 Josh Okogie PHX 5.9 3.2 1.0
20 Monte Morris PHX 5.8 1.8 1.8
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.2 6.7 1.6
22 Kris Murray POR 4.4 1.7 0.5
23 Jabari Walker POR 4.3 3.5 1.0
24 Bol Bol PHX 3.5 2.2 0.6
25 Damion Lee PHX 3.0 0.7 0.8
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.7 1.2 0.7
27 Duop Reath POR 2.4 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.