NBA games

MIN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
106–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28242430106
SA1918332292

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SA
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 28 26 5 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 17 3 3
Jaden McDaniels S 28 12 11 1
Julius Randle S 29 11 4 3
Rudy Gobert S 35 10 9 2
Mike Conley S 28 9 5 8
Donte DiVincenzo 20 7 5 2
Luka Garza 3 4 0 0
Rob Dillingham 9 3 1 2
Naz Reid 27 3 8 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 20 12 5
Jeremy Sochan S 30 17 15 4
Harrison Barnes S 30 17 1 2
Julian Champagnie S 29 11 6 1
Charles Bassey 15 8 7 1
Sidy Cissoko 3 6 0 0
Blake Wesley 9 4 2 5
Devin Vassell 25 4 0 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 8 3 1 1
Stephon Castle 23 2 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
2 Jeremy Sochan SA
11%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
10%
5 Stephon Castle SA
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 Chris Paul SA
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
25%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.5 10.9 5.2
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.7 6.1 4.8
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.6 7.3 4.0
4 Devin Vassell SA 17.6 3.1 3.4
5 Stephon Castle SA 16.9 3.3 4.5
6 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.8 7.8 2.7
7 Julian Champagnie SA 14.5 4.5 1.7
8 Harrison Barnes SA 12.0 4.2 1.8
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.1 11.0 2.0
10 Mike Conley MIN 10.9 3.1 4.6
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.8 4.5 2.0
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.7 3.3 2.4
13 Chris Paul SA 10.2 4.0 7.0
14 Naz Reid MIN 10.0 5.2 1.7
15 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 8.4 2.9 3.9
16 Charles Bassey SA 5.7 6.0 0.8
17 Luka Garza MIN 5.0 2.3 0.4
18 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.8 1.5 1.4
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.7 2.9 0.6
20 Blake Wesley SA 4.6 1.4 1.6
21 Malaki Branham SA 3.8 1.6 1.4
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.4 1.3 0.4
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.4 1.0 0.7
24 PJ Dozier MIN 2.2 0.9 0.6
25 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.0 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.