NBA games

BOS @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
112–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS34332421112
WSH2329202698

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home WSH
94% 6%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 35 28 12 2
Payton Pritchard 37 15 11 6
Derrick White S 35 15 5 5
Jrue Holiday S 24 12 1 1
Sam Hauser 28 12 7 1
Kristaps Porzingis S 11 11 2 2
Jaylen Brown S 26 11 3 4
Luke Kornet 27 7 11 4
Jaden Springer 2 1 1 0
Neemias Queta 10 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 36 21 3 7
Bilal Coulibaly S 37 19 5 6
Alex Sarr S 28 14 6 1
Justin Champagnie S 39 13 14 3
Bub Carrington S 40 11 10 2
Jared Butler 14 7 3 0
Johnny Davis 13 5 1 1
Anthony Gill 11 4 2 0
Jonas Valanciunas 9 2 1 2
Marvin Bagley III 11 2 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes 31-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
5 Al Horford BOS
9%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
7 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
43%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.5 10.4 6.0
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.6 5.0 6.0
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.3 7.8 2.3
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.6 3.3 6.0
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.9 4.4 4.0
6 Derrick White BOS 17.0 4.9 6.1
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.8 4.9 4.4
8 Alex Sarr WSH 11.8 6.7 1.8
9 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.7 8.3 1.9
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.8 4.8 3.8
11 Al Horford BOS 10.7 5.0 2.3
12 Bub Carrington WSH 8.7 3.8 2.8
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.6 2.8 1.2
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 8.1 4.1 1.0
15 Neemias Queta BOS 6.1 4.9 1.2
16 Jared Butler WSH 6.1 1.4 2.5
17 Jaylen Nowell WSH 5.8 1.8 1.4
18 Luke Kornet BOS 5.4 4.9 1.2
19 Marvin Bagley III WSH 5.1 2.7 0.6
20 Anthony Gill WSH 3.9 2.0 0.6
21 Johnny Davis WSH 3.9 2.3 0.7
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.0 1.8 0.7
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.7 2.0 0.6
24 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.6 2.1 0.2
25 Jaden Springer BOS 2.2 0.8 0.7
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.7 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.