NBA games

NO @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
104–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO28143824104
IND31284020119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home IND
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Boston 31 20 2 1
Dejounte Murray S 35 19 7 7
Herbert Jones S 38 19 5 3
Trey Murphy III S 36 16 6 2
CJ McCollum S 31 15 3 2
Yves Missi S 34 9 14 2
Javonte Green 14 6 4 0
Jamal Cain 8 0 4 0
Daniel Theis 14 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 22 5 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 21 4 10
Andrew Nembhard S 28 17 2 7
Obi Toppin 21 16 5 2
Myles Turner S 28 14 6 2
Bennedict Mathurin S 28 8 6 0
Jarace Walker 21 8 9 2
Thomas Bryant 11 7 2 0
T.J. McConnell 20 6 3 8
Johnny Furphy 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 21-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
13%
2 CJ McCollum NO
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
5 Dejounte Murray NO
9%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
7 Yves Missi NO
8%
8 Myles Turner IND
7%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
29%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 23.8 4.2 9.0
2 CJ McCollum NO 22.1 4.5 4.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 20.1 7.1 4.1
4 Trey Murphy III NO 19.9 4.6 3.0
5 Dejounte Murray NO 18.6 6.4 6.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.7 6.0 2.8
7 T.J. McConnell IND 14.3 4.2 3.9
8 Myles Turner IND 13.8 7.4 2.2
9 Yves Missi NO 12.8 10.3 1.2
10 Brandon Boston NO 12.5 3.3 2.5
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 12.1 3.2 1.5
12 Obi Toppin IND 11.7 5.5 2.0
13 Herbert Jones NO 10.7 3.9 2.5
14 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.4 3.1 4.8
15 Quenton Jackson IND 8.5 2.8 2.2
16 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.4 3.4 1.3
17 Javonte Green NO 6.9 3.3 0.9
18 Jarace Walker IND 6.8 3.3 1.7
19 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 2.3 1.4
20 Antonio Reeves NO 5.6 1.7 0.9
21 Jamal Cain NO 5.4 3.5 1.0
22 Johnny Furphy IND 5.3 2.2 0.9
23 Daniel Theis NO 4.2 2.6 1.0
24 Trey Jemison III NO 3.8 2.8 0.8
25 Thomas Bryant IND 3.8 2.9 0.5
26 Enrique Freeman IND 3.4 1.8 0.7
27 James Johnson IND 1.8 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.