NBA games

SA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
118–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA33192838118
POR25174628116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home POR
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 34 28 7 7
Devin Vassell 30 23 6 5
Julian Champagnie S 31 19 5 1
Jeremy Sochan S 32 15 5 3
Harrison Barnes S 34 10 3 1
Charles Bassey 14 8 4 0
Blake Wesley 25 8 2 8
Chris Paul S 11 5 3 4
Malaki Branham 15 2 1 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 13 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 38 32 4 2
Anfernee Simons S 37 30 3 7
Deni Avdija 26 19 5 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 33 11 4 2
Toumani Camara S 38 8 6 2
Donovan Clingan 15 6 7 2
Jabari Walker S 22 5 5 0
Scoot Henderson 22 4 2 5
Dalano Banton 8 1 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes dunk (Jerami Grant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
4 Chris Paul SA
9%
5 Toumani Camara POR
9%
6 Robert Williams III POR
9%
7 Jerami Grant POR
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
32%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.8 10.7 5.1
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.8 3.9 3.2
3 Anfernee Simons POR 17.0 3.5 4.5
4 Devin Vassell SA 16.9 2.7 3.2
5 Deni Avdija POR 16.8 5.9 3.6
6 Jeremy Sochan SA 15.6 8.4 2.9
7 Deandre Ayton POR 15.5 9.5 1.7
8 Julian Champagnie SA 15.0 4.7 1.7
9 Harrison Barnes SA 13.1 4.5 1.9
10 Jerami Grant POR 12.2 3.7 2.2
11 Scoot Henderson POR 12.0 3.0 5.5
12 Chris Paul SA 11.6 4.1 7.9
13 Toumani Camara POR 10.3 4.5 1.8
14 Dalano Banton POR 10.2 3.1 3.0
15 Robert Williams III POR 7.3 5.4 1.1
16 Donovan Clingan POR 6.2 7.0 0.7
17 Kris Murray POR 4.6 1.8 0.6
18 Charles Bassey SA 4.5 5.1 0.6
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.7 2.3 0.5
20 Malaki Branham SA 3.7 1.2 1.1
21 Jabari Walker POR 3.0 3.0 0.8
22 Rayan Rupert POR 2.9 1.3 0.7
23 Blake Wesley SA 2.9 0.9 0.8
24 Duop Reath POR 2.6 0.9 0.4
25 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.4 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.