NBA games

PHX @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
134–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX38383622134
UTAH39323421126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home UTAH
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 34 2 8
Kevin Durant S 34 30 3 8
Tyus Jones S 32 19 3 11
Royce O'Neale S 28 17 4 5
Ryan Dunn 13 13 1 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 12 7 0
Grayson Allen 25 8 4 2
Monte Morris 16 1 1 1
Mason Plumlee 10 0 9 1
Oso Ighodaro 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson 31 23 2 4
John Collins S 35 22 6 6
Lauri Markkanen S 34 19 6 2
Keyonte George S 31 18 6 9
Walker Kessler S 34 17 5 3
Brice Sensabaugh 13 9 1 0
Kyle Filipowski 14 7 2 1
Collin Sexton S 24 6 3 2
Johnny Juzang 13 3 1 1
Isaiah Collier 12 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Royce O'Neale · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 John Collins UTAH
10%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
7 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
8 Mason Plumlee PHX
8%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.3 3.9 6.7
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.3 6.5 3.7
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 20.3 5.9 2.3
4 Keyonte George UTAH 19.8 3.9 6.3
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.2 2.7 3.9
6 John Collins UTAH 18.7 8.7 2.7
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 15.6 3.5 3.7
8 Tyus Jones PHX 15.3 2.7 7.4
9 Grayson Allen PHX 13.3 3.4 3.0
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 12.0 5.3 1.8
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.0 10.3 1.4
12 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.7 8.8 1.4
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.3 2.3 1.4
14 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.7 4.0 2.0
15 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.1 2.5 1.2
16 Josh Okogie PHX 6.9 3.0 0.8
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.6 3.6 1.3
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.2 6.0 1.5
19 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.1 2.6 0.9
20 Monte Morris PHX 4.9 1.3 1.5
21 Isaiah Collier UTAH 4.9 1.4 3.7
22 Micah Potter UTAH 4.6 4.9 0.9
23 Patty Mills UTAH 4.5 1.4 1.4
24 Drew Eubanks UTAH 4.2 3.7 1.0
25 Bol Bol PHX 3.8 2.2 0.6
26 Damion Lee PHX 3.2 0.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.