NBA games

LAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
98–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2225222998
DEN29193537120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DEN
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. 24 16 3 4
Norman Powell S 30 16 3 4
James Harden S 32 15 5 6
Ivica Zubac S 32 13 13 4
Bones Hyland 21 13 0 1
Amir Coffey 29 8 2 1
Kris Dunn S 21 7 1 1
Nicolas Batum S 22 6 1 0
Mo Bamba 10 2 2 0
Kai Jones 5 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 32 20 5 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 17 5 4
Nikola Jokic S 30 16 7 2
Peyton Watson 26 14 5 0
Aaron Gordon S 23 14 6 2
Julian Strawther 26 12 4 2
Christian Braun S 24 8 3 1
Russell Westbrook 24 5 1 5
Hunter Tyson 5 5 1 0
DeAndre Jordan 14 4 9 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Dunn · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Kris Dunn makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
18%
2 Christian Braun DEN
9%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
7 James Harden LAC
7%
8 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC
7%
9 Russell Westbrook DEN
7%
10 Norman Powell LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
14%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.3 11.8 8.9
2 James Harden LAC 24.4 4.8 9.1
3 Norman Powell LAC 22.6 3.8 3.3
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 21.2 7.5 3.3
5 Jamal Murray DEN 19.2 4.1 6.9
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.6 5.3 3.6
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.5 11.3 2.4
8 Christian Braun DEN 14.8 5.1 2.1
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.3 3.9 6.9
10 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 12.8 4.3 3.7
11 Amir Coffey LAC 11.0 3.0 1.5
12 Peyton Watson DEN 9.4 3.5 1.4
13 Jordan Miller LAC 8.2 3.0 1.4
14 Julian Strawther DEN 7.2 1.6 1.2
15 Kris Dunn LAC 6.4 3.5 1.9
16 Bones Hyland LAC 5.7 1.4 0.9
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.5 2.5 1.2
18 Mo Bamba LAC 4.3 3.6 0.7
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.4 0.4
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.3 2.7 0.6
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 0.9 1.3
22 Kai Jones LAC 2.2 1.7 0.4
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.4 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.