NBA games

CHA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
95–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2618232895
CHI31282327109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CHI
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 38 21 6 3
Mark Williams S 17 15 9 2
Miles Bridges S 25 14 9 4
Josh Green S 31 9 2 2
Isaiah Wong 22 9 6 4
Tidjane Salaun 23 8 6 1
Vasilije Micic S 25 7 6 5
Cody Martin 25 5 2 0
Moussa Diabate 8 5 3 0
Nick Richards 16 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 32 19 3 5
Coby White S 32 18 2 1
Josh Giddey S 29 17 9 7
Zach LaVine S 34 13 4 3
Jalen Smith S 29 11 11 2
Lonzo Ball 19 10 7 4
Julian Phillips 9 8 1 0
Matas Buzelis 20 5 5 3
Patrick Williams 14 4 2 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 13 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Mark Williams makes alley oop dunk shot (Brandon Miller assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
11%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
3 Nick Richards CHA
10%
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
5 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 Vasilije Micic CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
22%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 25.6 6.4 3.8
2 Zach LaVine CHI 22.8 3.8 4.9
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.4 3.5 5.0
4 Miles Bridges CHA 15.9 5.4 3.0
5 Coby White CHI 15.8 4.0 4.4
6 Josh Giddey CHI 12.7 5.8 6.5
7 Nick Richards CHA 12.4 10.3 1.6
8 Patrick Williams CHI 10.6 3.4 2.3
9 Vasilije Micic CHA 10.3 2.8 4.8
10 Josh Green CHA 9.6 3.2 1.7
11 Cody Martin CHA 9.5 5.6 2.5
12 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.4 1.6 1.1
13 Matas Buzelis CHI 7.2 3.3 0.7
14 Jalen Smith CHI 6.6 4.3 0.7
15 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.3 3.7 0.9
16 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 6.2 2.6 1.0
17 Mark Williams CHA 5.6 4.1 0.8
18 Lonzo Ball CHI 5.3 2.1 2.5
19 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.8 7.6 0.9
20 KJ Simpson CHA 4.8 1.9 2.1
21 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 2.0 0.5
22 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.9 3.4 0.7
23 Seth Curry CHA 3.7 1.2 0.4
24 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.1 1.0 0.8
25 Taj Gibson CHA 2.7 2.9 0.6
26 Chris Duarte CHI 2.0 1.0 0.4
27 Jevon Carter CHI 1.8 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.