NBA games

BKN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
119–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN36203924119
MEM39303828135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MEM
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dorian Finney-Smith S 30 19 5 1
Jalen Wilson 29 15 2 4
Dennis Schroder S 26 15 3 8
Shake Milton 16 12 4 3
Keon Johnson S 23 12 2 1
Cameron Johnson S 31 12 7 3
Noah Clowney 18 12 4 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 12 3 1
Nic Claxton S 28 8 7 1
Ben Simmons 21 2 4 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 32 28 7 10
Desmond Bane S 28 21 4 8
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 20 7 2
Santi Aldama 26 20 6 0
Brandon Clarke S 23 14 8 1
Jaylen Wells S 25 12 5 3
Scotty Pippen Jr. 15 7 5 2
Jay Huff 12 6 4 1
Marcus Smart 23 5 1 3
Jake LaRavia 20 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Layup (2 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes two point shot (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
2 Ja Morant MEM
10%
3 Brandon Clarke MEM
9%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
7 Marcus Smart MEM
7%
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
7%
9 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
10 Ziaire Williams BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
42%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 24.7 4.9 8.9
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 21.0 4.5 3.4
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.5 6.2 2.1
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 20.0 3.6 7.0
5 Santi Aldama MEM 13.9 7.3 3.1
6 Desmond Bane MEM 13.7 5.6 4.6
7 Marcus Smart MEM 11.6 2.8 4.6
8 Nic Claxton BKN 11.4 8.0 1.9
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.2 3.4 1.9
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.4 3.5 1.5
11 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.4 3.5 1.1
12 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.1 2.9 4.4
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.9 6.6 1.2
14 Shake Milton BKN 8.8 2.2 2.2
15 Trendon Watford BKN 8.3 3.3 1.1
16 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.3 3.4 2.8
17 Ziaire Williams BKN 7.7 3.3 1.2
18 Jay Huff MEM 7.6 2.9 1.0
19 Ben Simmons BKN 6.4 5.3 5.0
20 Keon Johnson BKN 6.0 2.6 1.2
21 Noah Clowney BKN 5.7 2.3 0.8
22 Luke Kennard MEM 5.0 2.1 1.5
23 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 4.5 2.6 0.7
24 John Konchar MEM 3.2 2.6 0.8
25 Colin Castleton MEM 2.0 1.8 0.6
26 Yuki Kawamura MEM 1.6 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.