NBA games

LAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
87–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2321222187
MIN3218272097

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIN
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 36 23 11 1
Austin Reaves S 30 18 6 6
Max Christie S 37 15 5 2
Rui Hachimura S 39 9 7 3
Dalton Knecht 19 6 9 1
Gabe Vincent S 25 6 2 2
D'Angelo Russell 20 5 4 1
Cam Reddish 23 5 3 1
Christian Koloko 12 0 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 33 23 6 1
Julius Randle S 33 21 5 3
Jaden McDaniels S 37 18 9 0
Rudy Gobert S 38 12 13 2
Naz Reid 26 10 5 0
Rob Dillingham 8 6 0 1
Donte DiVincenzo 20 3 3 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 19 2 3 2
Mike Conley S 29 2 4 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 17-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
15%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
11%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Mike Conley MIN
9%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Max Christie LAL
7%
9 Dalton Knecht LAL
7%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
23%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.4 5.6 5.5
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.3 10.9 4.3
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.6 7.2 4.3
4 Austin Reaves LAL 15.1 2.8 4.3
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 14.5 3.7 5.4
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.4 4.9 1.8
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.2 11.1 2.0
8 Mike Conley MIN 11.1 3.1 4.4
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.9 3.0 2.4
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.3 3.7 1.8
11 Naz Reid MIN 9.9 5.1 1.7
12 Dalton Knecht LAL 9.8 4.5 1.1
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.2 2.6 4.0
14 Max Christie LAL 7.8 2.6 1.4
15 Quincy Olivari LAL 5.6 2.2 0.8
16 Luka Garza MIN 5.2 2.4 0.5
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.1 1.3 1.0
18 Cam Reddish LAL 3.8 1.6 0.7
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.3 0.8 1.1
20 Josh Minott MIN 2.6 1.4 0.5
21 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.5 1.1 0.8
22 PJ Dozier MIN 2.4 0.9 0.7
23 Christian Koloko LAL 2.0 2.4 0.3
24 Armel Traore LAL 1.9 2.3 0.3
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.