NBA games

IND @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
121–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND31302931121
PHI22283324107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home PHI
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 32 3 11
Pascal Siakam S 31 23 8 3
Obi Toppin 31 20 8 3
Bennedict Mathurin S 37 13 7 4
T.J. McConnell 18 11 2 4
Myles Turner S 25 7 6 2
Andrew Nembhard S 33 5 4 7
Johnny Furphy 11 3 1 1
Jarace Walker 15 3 2 0
Quenton Jackson 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 37 22 3 2
Paul George S 35 15 5 2
Ricky Council IV 22 14 9 2
KJ Martin 24 13 3 0
Joel Embiid S 17 12 4 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 34 12 13 3
Andre Drummond 23 7 8 0
Jared McCain 29 5 1 3
Guerschon Yabusele S 14 4 1 0
Reggie Jackson 5 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 2-foot layup (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
5 Paul George PHI
9%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
7 Myles Turner IND
7%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
15%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 25.0 8.9 4.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 22.5 4.0 6.2
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.1 3.4 7.9
4 Pascal Siakam IND 18.9 6.6 3.4
5 Jared McCain PHI 18.8 3.5 3.3
6 Paul George PHI 17.7 4.9 6.0
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.3 5.8 2.1
8 T.J. McConnell IND 14.3 3.7 3.6
9 Myles Turner IND 13.0 7.1 1.9
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.6 5.8 1.7
11 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.5 5.9 1.9
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.8 2.4 3.6
13 Obi Toppin IND 8.5 4.5 1.4
14 KJ Martin PHI 7.8 3.0 1.1
15 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.7 3.1 1.1
16 Quenton Jackson IND 6.2 2.0 1.6
17 Jarace Walker IND 5.4 3.1 1.4
18 Ben Sheppard IND 5.1 2.1 1.2
19 Andre Drummond PHI 5.1 5.5 0.7
20 Kyle Lowry PHI 4.8 1.9 2.3
21 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.6 1.8 0.7
22 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.0 1.1 1.5
23 Johnny Furphy IND 3.6 1.3 0.4
24 Eric Gordon PHI 3.4 1.0 1.0
25 Enrique Freeman IND 1.9 0.9 0.4
26 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.