NBA games

WSH @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
105–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH25292625105
CLE25323028115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CLE
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 40 27 6 5
Jordan Poole S 36 17 5 6
Justin Champagnie S 36 16 8 1
Alex Sarr S 27 14 7 2
Johnny Davis 27 8 5 2
Jonas Valanciunas 17 8 4 2
Jared Butler 18 7 1 3
Marvin Bagley III 5 6 0 0
Bub Carrington S 28 2 7 3
Anthony Gill 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 33 24 5 8
Jarrett Allen S 33 21 11 2
Donovan Mitchell S 34 20 6 6
Caris LeVert 28 14 5 6
Isaac Okoro S 25 13 2 1
Georges Niang 22 10 5 1
Sam Merrill 24 9 6 2
Dean Wade S 19 2 7 0
Ty Jerome 10 2 0 1
Tristan Thompson 11 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
16%
2 Darius Garland CLE
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
9%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
8 Dean Wade CLE
7%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
14%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.9 5.4 5.4
2 Darius Garland CLE 21.4 3.3 6.6
3 Jordan Poole WSH 19.7 3.1 6.0
4 Caris LeVert CLE 13.0 3.0 3.6
5 Ty Jerome CLE 13.0 2.5 3.7
6 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 12.6 8.8 2.0
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.1 9.8 1.8
8 Alex Sarr WSH 11.7 6.6 1.7
9 Corey Kispert WSH 10.2 3.4 1.4
10 Bub Carrington WSH 10.0 3.4 2.6
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.6 4.6 3.3
12 Georges Niang CLE 9.4 4.0 1.5
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.5 3.4 0.8
14 Sam Merrill CLE 6.3 2.0 1.6
15 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.7 2.2 1.7
16 Dean Wade CLE 5.5 4.1 1.1
17 Jared Butler WSH 4.4 1.0 2.1
18 JT Thor CLE 4.3 1.6 0.5
19 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.9 2.4 0.4
20 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 1.5 0.4
21 Johnny Davis WSH 2.9 1.5 0.4
22 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.7 2.2 0.2
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.7 2.4 0.5
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.6 1.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.