NBA games

SAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
111–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC28253820111
NO26292826109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home NO
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 34 32 20 3
DeMar DeRozan S 34 29 3 2
Keegan Murray S 34 18 9 0
De'Aaron Fox S 37 18 7 8
Kevin Huerter 28 7 3 1
Malik Monk S 34 5 3 9
Keon Ellis 20 2 4 0
Orlando Robinson 3 0 0 0
Alex Len 6 0 1 1
Colby Jones 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 37 36 3 3
Trey Murphy III S 40 21 4 0
Dejounte Murray S 35 20 7 9
Brandon Boston 26 9 4 2
Daniel Theis 14 7 2 2
Herbert Jones S 35 7 7 4
Yves Missi S 31 7 11 1
Trey Jemison III 3 1 0 0
Jamal Cain 16 1 4 0
Antonio Reeves 3 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
2 CJ McCollum NO
12%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
5 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
6 Yves Missi NO
9%
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Malik Monk SAC
8%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
30%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.9 5.1 7.0
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.7 13.2 6.6
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.9 5.5 4.6
4 CJ McCollum NO 21.5 4.5 4.2
5 Malik Monk SAC 19.8 4.3 6.3
6 Trey Murphy III NO 18.2 4.7 3.1
7 Dejounte Murray NO 17.4 6.0 6.0
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.0 7.1 1.7
9 Brandon Boston NO 12.6 3.2 2.8
10 Yves Missi NO 12.2 9.9 1.2
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.7 3.2 1.5
12 Herbert Jones NO 9.9 3.3 1.9
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.3 3.3 1.8
14 Keon Ellis SAC 7.8 2.7 1.8
15 Javonte Green NO 7.2 3.3 1.0
16 Jamal Cain NO 5.1 3.0 0.8
17 Isaac Jones SAC 4.8 2.5 0.5
18 Antonio Reeves NO 4.6 1.3 0.6
19 Jae Crowder SAC 4.4 2.3 0.7
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.9 1.1 0.7
21 Orlando Robinson SAC 3.3 2.1 1.2
22 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 3.3 1.3 1.2
23 Colby Jones SAC 3.1 1.8 0.8
24 Alex Len SAC 2.9 2.1 0.9
25 Trey Jemison III NO 2.9 2.7 0.6
26 Daniel Theis NO 2.7 2.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.