NBA games

TOR @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
104–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27242528104
MIA23353125114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIA
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick S 31 22 4 2
Jakob Poeltl 27 16 4 2
Ochai Agbaji S 30 13 3 0
RJ Barrett S 34 13 11 10
Davion Mitchell 21 12 2 6
Ja'Kobe Walter 26 9 2 1
Jamison Battle 15 8 2 1
Jamal Shead 14 5 0 1
Jonathan Mogbo S 30 4 10 4
Bruno Fernando S 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 32 23 4 4
Bam Adebayo S 35 21 16 5
Nikola Jovic 24 14 4 1
Jimmy Butler III S 29 11 5 4
Dru Smith 34 11 3 3
Haywood Highsmith S 19 9 3 0
Duncan Robinson S 18 8 3 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 16 6 3 0
Kevin Love 9 6 3 1
Terry Rozier 25 5 8 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Haywood Highsmith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Haywood Highsmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
19%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
7 Bruno Fernando TOR
8%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
9%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 24.5 7.0 5.6
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.2 5.6 5.2
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.9 5.7 4.7
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.9 10.6 6.2
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 16.3 11.2 2.8
6 Gradey Dick TOR 15.4 3.8 2.1
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.2 2.7 2.6
8 Terry Rozier MIA 10.3 3.0 1.9
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.4 3.2 1.7
10 Kelly Olynyk TOR 7.8 4.0 1.5
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.6 3.1 1.3
12 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.5 3.6 1.7
13 Chris Boucher TOR 6.6 3.8 0.5
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.4 2.7 1.5
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.3 2.0 3.6
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.2 4.5 1.7
17 Kevin Love MIA 5.3 4.3 1.2
18 Dru Smith MIA 4.9 2.8 1.2
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.8 2.6 0.8
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.6 2.0 1.0
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.4 1.3 0.8
22 Alec Burks MIA 3.9 1.6 1.0
23 Josh Richardson MIA 3.9 1.2 1.2
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.6 2.8 0.5
25 Jamal Shead TOR 3.2 0.8 1.4
26 Bruno Fernando TOR 2.9 2.9 1.0
27 Kel'el Ware MIA 2.1 1.3 0.3
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.