NBA games

DET @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
99–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET1628243199
BOS27323430123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home BOS
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ronald Holland II 21 26 3 0
Cade Cunningham S 35 18 8 8
Jaden Ivey S 27 10 3 2
Tobias Harris S 26 9 8 3
Marcus Sasser 17 9 1 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 19 6 6 1
Simone Fontecchio 17 6 1 1
Malik Beasley 16 5 4 3
Paul Reed 15 4 0 3
Ausar Thompson 13 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 31 27 4 10
Derrick White S 31 23 2 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 30 19 8 2
Jaylen Brown S 30 14 9 6
Jrue Holiday S 25 12 7 6
Luke Kornet 13 12 7 1
Drew Peterson 19 5 3 2
Neemias Queta 18 4 2 1
JD Davison 7 3 0 0
Jordan Walsh 13 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:21 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
5 Tobias Harris DET
10%
6 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Al Horford BOS
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
35%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.0 10.2 6.2
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.5 7.5 9.2
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.0 4.9 5.8
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.4 7.5 2.2
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.3 4.2 3.1
6 Jaden Ivey DET 17.2 3.8 4.4
7 Derrick White BOS 16.4 5.3 5.6
8 Malik Beasley DET 15.4 3.5 2.2
9 Tobias Harris DET 14.2 5.4 1.8
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.4 4.4 4.3
11 Al Horford BOS 11.6 5.3 2.0
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 6.7 2.2 1.0
13 Marcus Sasser DET 6.2 1.2 1.3
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.0 4.5 1.5
15 Neemias Queta BOS 5.2 4.6 0.9
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.1 2.4 0.7
17 Ronald Holland II DET 4.9 2.6 1.0
18 Ausar Thompson DET 4.4 2.3 2.1
19 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.3 2.9 0.8
20 Drew Peterson BOS 4.3 1.8 0.5
21 Luke Kornet BOS 4.1 3.9 1.1
22 Paul Reed DET 3.4 1.9 0.4
23 JD Davison BOS 3.3 0.8 1.1
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.0 1.3 0.4
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.