NBA games

MIL @ OKC

NBA T-Mobile Arena ·Final
97–81
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2724262097
OKC2822141781

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home OKC
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 26 19 10
Damian Lillard S 35 23 4 4
Gary Trent Jr. 21 13 3 1
Brook Lopez S 37 13 9 1
AJ Green 26 9 1 2
Taurean Prince S 21 6 2 2
Bobby Portis 19 5 9 3
Andre Jackson Jr. S 26 2 3 1
Pat Connaughton 13 0 0 1
Tyler Smith 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 21 4 2
Jalen Williams S 34 18 4 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 32 16 12 2
Isaiah Joe S 19 7 3 1
Ajay Mitchell 16 5 2 2
Cason Wallace 23 5 1 1
Luguentz Dort S 30 4 8 1
Kenrich Williams 15 3 2 1
Alex Caruso 24 2 3 0
Branden Carlson 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 15-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
21%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
21%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
8 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
82%
Jumper
4%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.4 11.9 7.5
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.8 5.6 6.3
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.0 4.5 7.5
4 Jalen Williams OKC 23.4 5.5 5.3
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 13.6 11.4 3.8
6 Bobby Portis MIL 12.1 7.5 2.2
7 Brook Lopez MIL 9.8 4.7 1.4
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.3 2.4 1.3
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.3 5.2 1.7
10 Cason Wallace OKC 8.0 4.4 2.4
11 AJ Green MIL 7.5 2.4 1.3
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.4 2.3 1.7
13 Alex Caruso OKC 7.0 3.2 2.0
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.4 2.6 1.0
15 Taurean Prince MIL 6.2 2.7 1.4
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 2.6 0.9
17 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.4 1.5 1.2
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.8 3.6 1.4
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.8 2.1 1.3
20 Delon Wright MIL 3.0 2.0 1.3
21 Malevy Leons OKC 2.9 2.0 0.6
22 Dillon Jones OKC 2.7 1.8 0.7
23 AJ Johnson MIL 2.4 0.9 1.4
24 Ryan Rollins MIL 2.0 0.8 0.6
25 Branden Carlson OKC 1.5 1.1 0.3
26 Tyler Smith MIL 1.4 0.8 0.3
27 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 1.3 0.7 0.3
28 Chris Livingston MIL 0.9 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.