NBA games

HOU @ OKC

NBA T-Mobile Arena ·Final
96–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2022272796
OKC18233436111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home OKC
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson 30 19 7 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 40 14 6 3
Dillon Brooks S 33 14 5 2
Alperen Sengun S 33 13 11 2
Tari Eason 17 12 2 0
Jalen Green S 34 12 3 2
Fred VanVleet S 42 8 9 7
Steven Adams 6 4 6 0
Aaron Holiday 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 32 8 6
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 21 8 2
Jalen Williams S 39 20 5 5
Luguentz Dort S 31 19 9 1
Kenrich Williams 11 7 1 0
Cason Wallace S 32 5 6 2
Isaiah Joe 18 5 2 0
Ajay Mitchell 9 2 2 1
Alex Caruso 20 0 2 2
Aaron Wiggins 10 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:37 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
20%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
4 Jalen Green HOU
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
51%
Jumper
21%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.0 5.0 7.0
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.9 5.8 5.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.6 10.6 5.9
4 Jalen Green HOU 18.7 4.3 3.0
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.5 4.1 5.6
6 Amen Thompson HOU 13.2 7.8 2.0
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.9 4.2 2.1
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.9 11.2 3.7
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.2 6.7 1.2
10 Tari Eason HOU 9.2 7.3 1.2
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.0 4.1 2.8
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.7 2.5 1.7
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.5 2.8 1.1
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.4 5.4 1.7
15 Alex Caruso OKC 7.4 3.0 2.4
16 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.3 1.3 1.3
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.9 2.6 0.9
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.2 1.4 1.0
19 Cam Whitmore HOU 3.2 1.2 0.5
20 Dillon Jones OKC 3.0 1.9 0.9
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 2.8 1.1 0.7
22 Steven Adams HOU 2.4 2.8 0.7
23 Jock Landale HOU 2.3 2.6 0.6
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.2 1.8 0.4
25 Nate Williams HOU 1.9 0.6 0.3
26 Jeff Green HOU 1.8 0.9 0.3
27 Branden Carlson OKC 1.8 1.3 0.5
28 Malevy Leons OKC 1.6 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.