NBA games

ATL @ MIL

NBA T-Mobile Arena ·Final
102–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28213419102
MIL26292728110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 40 35 7 10
De'Andre Hunter 30 15 7 3
Jalen Johnson S 39 15 10 4
Dyson Daniels S 38 11 8 5
Bogdan Bogdanovic 24 10 1 1
Onyeka Okongwu 19 8 3 0
Clint Capela S 29 6 8 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 17 2 0 0
Vit Krejci 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 32 14 9
Damian Lillard S 37 25 6 7
Brook Lopez S 33 16 3 1
Bobby Portis 23 10 9 2
AJ Green 19 9 1 1
Taurean Prince S 20 6 3 0
Khris Middleton 22 6 3 4
Andre Jackson Jr. S 25 5 7 4
Gary Trent Jr. 22 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
24%
2 Trae Young ATL
14%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
4 Clint Capela ATL
8%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
7%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
7 Larry Nance Jr. ATL
6%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
6%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
10 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
2%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.6 10.1 7.3
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.0 4.3 8.8
3 Trae Young ATL 22.6 3.9 10.7
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.2 10.1 5.8
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 18.9 3.6 1.8
6 Bobby Portis MIL 13.9 7.0 2.8
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.7 4.9 3.4
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.7 3.8 2.2
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.6 7.0 1.4
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.3 2.8 1.5
11 Brook Lopez MIL 10.9 4.6 1.8
12 AJ Green MIL 9.4 2.7 1.5
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.1 3.0 1.2
14 Clint Capela ATL 8.9 9.5 1.3
15 Khris Middleton MIL 8.5 3.0 5.6
16 Taurean Prince MIL 7.4 3.0 1.7
17 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.1 2.5 1.0
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.0 3.5 1.4
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.7 2.2 1.5
20 Kobe Bufkin ATL 4.1 1.6 1.3
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.0 0.9 0.9
22 Delon Wright MIL 3.8 2.1 1.6
23 Vit Krejci ATL 3.5 2.1 1.3
24 AJ Johnson MIL 3.2 1.0 1.7
25 David Roddy ATL 2.8 1.2 0.8
26 Tyler Smith MIL 2.1 0.9 0.4
27 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.0 0.7 0.4
28 Chris Livingston MIL 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.