NBA games

GS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
90–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS1819322190
HOU2024242391

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home HOU
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 36 20 7 1
Stephen Curry S 34 19 3 5
Buddy Hield S 35 15 4 0
Brandin Podziemski 31 8 2 4
Draymond Green S 30 8 3 4
Lindy Waters III 23 8 5 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 15 4 1 1
Gary Payton II S 18 4 7 2
Kevon Looney 11 2 7 1
Pat Spencer 3 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 32 26 11 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 15 1 1
Jalen Green S 31 12 4 3
Amen Thompson 29 10 6 3
Dillon Brooks S 38 9 4 1
Tari Eason 24 9 7 1
Fred VanVleet S 36 8 2 7
Aaron Holiday 12 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
11%
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Gary Payton II GS
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
39%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 22.7 5.3 6.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.2 10.2 6.3
3 Jalen Green HOU 20.2 4.6 3.2
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.5 4.0 6.0
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.7 4.6 2.1
6 Amen Thompson HOU 13.5 7.7 2.0
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.0 4.0 2.3
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.4 6.6 1.3
9 Draymond Green GS 11.0 7.1 5.7
10 Buddy Hield GS 9.3 2.8 1.3
11 Tari Eason HOU 9.3 7.1 1.3
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.9 4.4 3.1
13 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.9 4.8 1.2
14 Lindy Waters III GS 5.8 2.7 1.1
15 Kevon Looney GS 5.2 6.3 1.4
16 Gary Payton II GS 4.5 3.1 0.9
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.3 1.2 1.1
18 Kyle Anderson GS 4.1 2.0 1.5
19 Cam Whitmore HOU 3.5 1.2 0.6
20 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.4 1.4 1.0
21 Steven Adams HOU 3.0 3.1 1.0
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.8 2.0 0.7
23 Jock Landale HOU 2.6 2.6 0.7
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.2 0.9 0.4
25 Nate Williams HOU 2.2 0.6 0.3
26 Pat Spencer GS 1.9 1.0 1.3
27 Gui Santos GS 1.0 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.