NBA games

ATL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
108–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL22253427108
NY28261828100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NY
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 29 24 1 0
Trae Young S 36 22 5 11
Jalen Johnson S 41 21 15 7
Onyeka Okongwu 23 12 11 0
Clint Capela S 25 11 13 1
Dyson Daniels S 36 9 7 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 24 7 2 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 17 2 1 2
Vit Krejci 8 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Hart S 34 21 8 6
Mikal Bridges S 38 19 4 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 19 19 5
Jalen Brunson S 36 14 4 8
OG Anunoby S 39 13 6 1
Cameron Payne 16 7 1 1
Miles McBride 20 5 2 3
Precious Achiuwa 19 2 5 1
Jericho Sims 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot three point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
2 Trae Young ATL
10%
3 OG Anunoby NY
10%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
6 Josh Hart NY
9%
7 Clint Capela ATL
9%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
9 Larry Nance Jr. ATL
7%
10 Jericho Sims NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
33%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.7 3.5 9.3
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.9 13.1 4.1
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.1 9.3 5.8
4 Trae Young ATL 20.7 3.7 10.7
5 Mikal Bridges NY 18.9 3.3 3.7
6 OG Anunoby NY 17.9 4.6 2.3
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.1 3.9 1.7
8 Josh Hart NY 16.1 7.4 5.3
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.0 4.9 3.4
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 12.2 3.6 2.1
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.3 6.5 1.5
12 Miles McBride NY 10.8 3.1 3.1
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.8 3.3 1.2
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.2 6.8 1.7
15 Cameron Payne NY 9.2 2.3 3.5
16 Clint Capela ATL 8.7 9.4 1.3
17 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.6 2.6 1.2
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.5 1.1 1.1
19 Kobe Bufkin ATL 4.5 1.9 1.5
20 Vit Krejci ATL 3.5 1.8 1.2
21 David Roddy ATL 3.1 1.4 1.0
22 Jericho Sims NY 3.1 3.5 0.8
23 Tyler Kolek NY 2.9 1.1 0.9
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.0 1.0 0.5
25 Matt Ryan NY 1.9 0.5 0.5
26 Jacob Toppin NY 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.