NBA games

DAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
104–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL24301931104
OKC32253328118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home OKC
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 28 19 4 0
Naji Marshall 29 19 4 2
Kyrie Irving S 40 17 2 5
Luka Doncic S 40 16 11 5
Spencer Dinwiddie 23 9 3 4
Daniel Gafford 16 9 2 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 12 6 2 1
Dereck Lively II S 31 5 13 5
Quentin Grimes S 18 4 3 2
Jazian Gortman 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 39 8 5
Jalen Williams S 32 18 7 4
Luguentz Dort S 32 11 6 2
Cason Wallace S 31 11 8 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 30 10 13 3
Isaiah Joe 17 9 3 3
Kenrich Williams 17 9 2 2
Alex Caruso 22 6 4 4
Aaron Wiggins 9 3 0 0
Ajay Mitchell 10 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dereck Lively II assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
4 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
29%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.7 4.7 6.9
2 Luka Doncic DAL 26.7 8.3 7.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 24.4 5.8 5.7
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.6 5.0 5.8
5 Naji Marshall DAL 14.5 3.3 2.1
6 Quentin Grimes DAL 12.8 4.5 2.1
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.8 3.0 4.3
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.5 10.7 3.9
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.7 7.6 1.5
10 Klay Thompson DAL 10.7 3.5 1.6
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.4 8.0 1.9
12 Cason Wallace OKC 8.4 3.7 2.5
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.4 3.3 1.2
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.1 5.5 2.0
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.7 2.6 1.7
16 Alex Caruso OKC 7.4 3.0 2.1
17 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.9 1.5 1.3
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.3 2.9 1.0
19 Jazian Gortman DAL 3.2 0.7 0.6
20 Dillon Jones OKC 2.7 1.8 0.7
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.6 2.1 0.5
22 Dwight Powell DAL 2.2 2.0 0.7
23 Malevy Leons OKC 1.8 1.4 0.4
24 Markieff Morris DAL 1.7 1.1 0.3
25 Branden Carlson OKC 1.5 1.4 0.4
26 Kessler Edwards DAL 1.2 0.4 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.