NBA games

ORL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
109–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL33261337109
MIL25352034114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 38 32 9 1
Anthony Black 32 17 6 3
Moritz Wagner 19 13 3 1
Goga Bitadze S 38 12 14 4
Jett Howard 13 10 0 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 34 8 11 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 7 1 1
Tristan da Silva S 16 6 2 0
Cole Anthony 15 4 0 2
Caleb Houstan 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 37 7 1
Damian Lillard S 39 28 2 9
Bobby Portis 32 22 10 4
AJ Green 33 9 4 2
Brook Lopez S 28 7 6 0
Gary Trent Jr. 24 6 0 2
Andre Jackson Jr. S 8 5 2 0
Khris Middleton 20 0 4 8
Taurean Prince S 20 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 17-foot jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
2 Goga Bitadze ORL
12%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
6 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
9%
7 Taurean Prince MIL
9%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
21%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.8 10.1 7.2
2 Damian Lillard MIL 25.0 4.4 8.0
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 19.3 3.3 4.4
4 Moritz Wagner ORL 13.0 6.8 2.4
5 Bobby Portis MIL 11.8 6.2 2.1
6 Brook Lopez MIL 11.3 5.1 1.7
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.2 2.8 1.2
8 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.0 7.8 1.9
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.8 2.4 1.7
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.6 5.9 1.8
11 AJ Green MIL 8.6 2.6 1.2
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.3 3.1 1.1
13 Taurean Prince MIL 7.3 2.8 1.5
14 Anthony Black ORL 7.1 3.1 2.8
15 Cole Anthony ORL 6.3 2.0 1.8
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.1 4.4 0.5
17 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.6 3.2 1.2
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.6 2.2 1.3
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.1 1.8 0.8
20 Delon Wright MIL 3.7 2.1 1.4
21 Mac McClung ORL 3.5 1.5 1.2
22 AJ Johnson MIL 2.8 0.9 1.4
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.5 0.9 0.5
24 Trevelin Queen ORL 1.7 0.6 0.3
25 Tyler Smith MIL 1.6 0.8 0.3
26 Cory Joseph ORL 1.4 0.7 0.4
27 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.