NBA games

LAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
74–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL1822221274
GS36303828132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (GS) / 5 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home GS
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quincy Olivari S 39 22 7 2
Bronny James S 35 17 4 1
Jaxson Hayes S 21 7 7 2
Cam Reddish S 25 6 2 1
Jalen Hood-Schifino S 31 6 3 7
Maxwell Lewis 34 6 6 0
Armel Traore 28 6 7 1
Colin Castleton 27 4 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 19 17 4 0
Brandin Podziemski 21 16 4 2
Buddy Hield 15 14 4 4
Moses Moody 18 14 4 0
Andrew Wiggins S 22 13 3 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 20 12 1 5
De'Anthony Melton S 21 9 1 5
Quinten Post 7 8 1 1
Kevon Looney 12 6 2 1
Gui Santos 10 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaxson Hayes · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jaxson Hayes makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
5 Stephen Curry GS
8%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
8%
7 De'Anthony Melton GS
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 LeBron James LAL
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
31%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 23.4 10.0 2.9
2 Dalton Knecht LAL 18.1 4.6 2.4
3 Moses Moody GS 14.8 3.6 2.1
4 Austin Reaves LAL 14.5 5.5 4.1
5 LeBron James LAL 12.8 4.8 3.4
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.5 6.9 1.6
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.0 4.8 1.8
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.3 2.9 4.6
9 Stephen Curry GS 11.3 2.9 3.7
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.9 4.0 4.9
11 Buddy Hield GS 9.4 2.6 1.6
12 De'Anthony Melton GS 8.6 2.9 2.9
13 Max Christie LAL 8.4 3.8 1.2
14 Lindy Waters III GS 7.7 3.6 1.0
15 Draymond Green GS 7.6 3.8 2.7
16 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.6 6.9 2.0
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 6.2 1.5
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.8 1.4 1.1
19 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.7 2.5 2.8
20 Kyle Anderson GS 5.6 2.6 1.9
21 Quincy Olivari LAL 5.4 2.3 0.7
22 Kevon Looney GS 5.2 4.0 2.2
23 Cam Reddish LAL 4.2 2.4 0.7
24 Gary Payton II GS 4.2 2.3 1.8
25 Armel Traore LAL 4.1 4.1 0.5
26 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.5 1.7 0.7
27 Bronny James LAL 3.3 2.2 0.6
28 Colin Castleton LAL 2.7 2.9 1.7
29 Reece Beekman GS 2.6 1.1 1.0
30 Pat Spencer GS 2.6 1.7 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.