NBA games

UTAH @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
86–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH1716223186
POR29313628124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (POR) / 5 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home POR
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh 24 13 2 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 14 9 3 1
Drew Eubanks 16 9 5 0
Johnny Juzang 19 8 3 3
John Collins 12 7 5 0
Collin Sexton S 17 6 1 1
Jordan Clarkson 12 6 3 0
Keyonte George S 14 6 0 1
Cody Williams 17 5 0 1
Micah Potter 10 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rayan Rupert 23 20 4 2
Jerami Grant S 23 18 3 7
Donovan Clingan S 24 14 20 4
Duop Reath 24 14 5 2
Anfernee Simons S 21 11 2 2
Deni Avdija S 21 10 6 7
Kris Murray 16 10 2 0
Toumani Camara S 22 8 5 1
Scoot Henderson 24 6 3 2
Justin Minaya 12 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keyonte George · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Keyonte George makes 22-foot three point jumper (Walker Kessler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
13%
2 Scoot Henderson POR
12%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
4 Toumani Camara POR
11%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
7 Deandre Ayton POR
9%
8 Rayan Rupert POR
8%
9 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
8%
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
23%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scoot Henderson POR 21.5 4.9 5.8
2 Toumani Camara POR 18.1 6.8 3.1
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 17.9 4.6 1.5
4 Keyonte George UTAH 17.7 2.8 3.6
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 14.4 4.2 4.0
6 Dalano Banton POR 12.3 4.4 3.6
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 11.7 3.7 2.7
8 Kris Murray POR 10.6 4.0 2.6
9 John Collins UTAH 10.0 5.2 1.8
10 Deandre Ayton POR 9.6 7.3 1.4
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.8 9.2 1.4
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.8 3.6 1.9
13 Johnny Juzang UTAH 8.8 2.0 0.8
14 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 8.7 4.4 1.3
15 Rayan Rupert POR 8.7 3.7 2.1
16 Donovan Clingan POR 8.6 8.4 1.1
17 Cody Williams UTAH 8.1 2.8 1.7
18 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.0 1.1 3.6
19 Drew Eubanks UTAH 4.6 4.1 0.4
20 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 4.3 3.2 1.0
21 Duop Reath POR 4.0 2.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.