NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
132–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN25432935132
MIN22373235126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (MIN) / 4 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Strawther 30 33 3 2
Jamal Murray S 29 25 0 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 23 16 8 0
Russell Westbrook 16 13 2 5
Dario Saric 15 13 5 1
Christian Braun S 28 11 6 0
Vlatko Cancar 20 9 2 3
Aaron Gordon S 24 5 4 5
Nikola Jokic S 28 4 7 7
Hunter Tyson 8 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Garza S 32 29 9 1
Daishen Nix 23 17 4 5
Rob Dillingham S 26 15 2 7
Jesse Edwards 16 14 4 0
Leonard Miller 23 13 8 1
Jaylen Clark 21 11 4 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. S 31 9 5 6
Josh Minott S 23 7 3 1
Keita Bates-Diop 18 5 4 0
PJ Dozier S 20 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terrence Shannon Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot (Rob Dillingham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
4 Julian Strawther DEN
8%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
7 Christian Braun DEN
8%
8 Naz Reid MIN
8%
9 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
10 Zeke Nnaji DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
4%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.3 3.9 4.3
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 21.7 10.4 5.1
3 Julian Strawther DEN 16.9 3.4 3.0
4 Josh Minott MIN 15.7 6.0 2.4
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.5 4.1 1.5
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.3 3.5 4.6
7 Luka Garza MIN 14.0 5.4 1.4
8 Naz Reid MIN 13.9 4.7 2.3
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.6 9.7 2.0
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 10.7 4.3 3.4
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.3 3.7 2.1
12 Christian Braun DEN 9.2 4.2 2.4
13 Rob Dillingham MIN 8.8 2.4 4.6
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.5 2.8 2.4
15 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.8 3.4 0.7
16 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.4 2.6 1.8
17 Trey Alexander DEN 7.3 2.8 2.7
18 Mike Conley MIN 7.2 2.1 1.8
19 PJ Dozier MIN 7.1 1.9 1.1
20 Dario Saric DEN 6.6 4.2 1.9
21 Daishen Nix MIN 6.6 1.8 1.4
22 Joe Ingles MIN 6.5 2.9 2.7
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 6.3 4.5 1.5
24 Jamal Murray DEN 6.1 2.0 1.6
25 Leonard Miller MIN 5.8 4.0 1.0
26 Vlatko Cancar DEN 4.4 2.1 1.3
27 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.4 1.7 1.6
28 PJ Hall DEN 3.3 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.