NBA games

MIA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
114–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA28322529114
MEM24382918109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (MEM) / 4 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MEM
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Christopher 22 17 3 4
Kel'el Ware 28 16 7 1
Nassir Little 32 15 4 3
Pelle Larsson S 32 14 5 4
Nikola Jovic S 14 11 1 4
Haywood Highsmith S 15 10 3 0
Dru Smith S 15 10 4 1
Keshad Johnson 26 8 4 1
Zyon Pullin 18 6 4 4
Thomas Bryant S 15 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama S 23 19 7 2
Desmond Bane S 26 19 4 7
Ja Morant S 25 17 8 6
Jaylen Wells 20 11 3 1
Brandon Clarke 17 9 2 1
Zach Edey S 20 7 7 0
Miles Norris 6 6 2 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 15 6 2 0
Marcus Smart S 23 5 1 5
Armando Bacot 11 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Edey · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Zach Edey makes 1-foot dunk (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
13%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
3 Terry Rozier MIA
10%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
7 Jake LaRavia MEM
9%
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
9%
9 Brandon Clarke MEM
8%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
26%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 17.5 4.6 3.0
2 Tyler Herro MIA 16.4 3.9 4.0
3 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.7 4.1 3.3
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 12.5 3.6 2.1
5 Zach Edey MEM 12.4 7.8 1.4
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 11.8 5.0 2.1
7 Jake LaRavia MEM 11.1 6.4 2.7
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 10.6 2.8 4.4
9 Santi Aldama MEM 9.4 4.7 3.0
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.9 4.4 3.1
11 Terry Rozier MIA 8.6 4.5 3.0
12 Jay Huff MEM 8.5 4.5 1.2
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.2 2.2 2.7
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.7 3.6 1.0
15 John Konchar MEM 7.5 6.1 1.6
16 Alec Burks MIA 7.1 2.5 1.6
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.9 2.5 1.8
18 Josh Christopher MIA 6.3 2.1 2.8
19 Kel'el Ware MIA 5.8 4.4 0.6
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.7 1.3 1.5
21 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.6 1.8 1.8
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.4 2.5 0.7
23 Dru Smith MIA 5.2 1.8 3.1
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.1 2.1 1.0
25 Yuki Kawamura MEM 5.1 0.9 3.9
26 Kevin Love MIA 5.0 1.3 0.7
27 Miye Oni MEM 4.9 2.2 1.1
28 Luke Kennard MEM 4.3 1.7 1.2
29 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.6 1.6 2.0
30 Armando Bacot MEM 3.4 2.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.