NBA games

CLE @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
137–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CLE313032377137
CHI252938389139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (CHI) / 3 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHI
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 32 25 16 2
Darius Garland S 32 23 2 5
Donovan Mitchell S 35 22 4 4
Evan Mobley S 35 15 10 8
Dean Wade S 26 14 5 3
Caris LeVert 26 9 0 5
Jaylon Tyson 11 8 4 0
Sam Merrill 17 6 2 2
Georges Niang 13 5 0 3
JT Thor 5 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 28 19 3 3
Zach LaVine S 28 18 6 3
Nikola Vucevic S 27 18 12 6
Coby White S 31 14 6 8
Jalen Smith 17 14 9 4
Lonzo Ball 16 11 3 3
Patrick Williams S 20 10 6 3
Jevon Carter 14 9 1 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 14 9 2 0
Matas Buzelis 15 7 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ayo Dosunmu · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Ayo Dosunmu makes 22-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
19%
2 Zach LaVine CHI
19%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
18%
4 Adama Sanogo CHI
16%
5 Julian Phillips CHI
14%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
13%
7 Ty Jerome CLE
0%
8 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI
0%
9 Dean Wade CLE
0%
10 Georges Niang CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
66%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
8%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 19.7 3.2 4.0
2 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.7 8.8 2.4
3 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 14.3 4.4 2.8
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 14.2 9.1 2.8
5 Julian Phillips CHI 11.8 4.5 1.4
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 10.2 3.8 2.1
7 Ty Jerome CLE 10.0 3.6 3.5
8 Georges Niang CLE 9.6 3.6 1.1
9 Dean Wade CLE 8.9 4.5 1.5
10 Jaylon Tyson CLE 8.3 4.7 1.9
11 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.1 2.4 3.1
12 Patrick Williams CHI 7.8 3.8 1.9
13 JT Thor CLE 7.1 2.8 0.9
14 Jules Bernard CLE 6.4 1.8 0.8
15 Luke Travers CLE 5.3 3.7 1.6
16 Adama Sanogo CHI 5.3 5.1 0.9
17 Chris Duarte CHI 5.3 2.6 1.0
18 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 1.8 0.9
19 DJ Steward CHI 3.3 1.2 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.