NBA games

TOR @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
116–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR31223825116
BKN30202933112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (BKN) / 4 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BKN
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 26 21 6 3
Ochai Agbaji S 23 16 6 2
Jakob Poeltl S 25 14 8 4
Gradey Dick S 27 12 6 1
Chris Boucher 11 10 1 1
Jamal Shead 19 9 0 4
Immanuel Quickley S 24 9 3 10
Jahmi'us Ramsey 9 8 0 0
Bruno Fernando 15 7 4 0
Jamison Battle 9 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 32 32 5 4
Cam Thomas S 32 13 3 3
Jalen Wilson S 30 13 3 5
Dennis Schroder S 35 12 1 3
Ziaire Williams 27 12 8 2
Keon Johnson 16 11 4 2
Noah Clowney 21 11 5 3
Ben Simmons S 25 4 8 6
Shake Milton 10 4 0 2
Jaylen Martin 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
13%
3 Gradey Dick TOR
13%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
5 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
6 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR
10%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
10%
9 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
10 Chris Boucher TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
48%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.7 6.5 4.9
2 Cam Thomas BKN 14.8 2.9 2.0
3 Gradey Dick TOR 14.1 3.7 1.8
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.2 9.8 3.0
5 Shake Milton BKN 12.8 2.7 2.6
6 Dennis Schroder BKN 12.1 2.9 5.1
7 Jalen Wilson BKN 11.2 3.6 1.9
8 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.7 5.8 1.9
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.7 3.2 2.3
10 Cameron Johnson BKN 9.5 3.6 2.2
11 Noah Clowney BKN 9.4 4.6 2.7
12 Chris Boucher TOR 9.3 4.2 1.0
13 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.5 2.6 4.6
14 Jamal Shead TOR 7.3 1.0 2.4
15 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.2 2.3 1.3
16 Jahmi'us Ramsey TOR 6.1 1.4 0.9
17 Jamison Battle TOR 5.2 1.1 0.7
18 Bruno Fernando TOR 5.1 4.6 1.0
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.1 5.2 2.3
20 D.J. Carton TOR 4.6 2.0 1.7
21 Dariq Whitehead BKN 3.3 1.4 0.6
22 Jared Rhoden TOR 2.5 1.6 0.6
23 Branden Carlson TOR 2.2 1.3 0.5
24 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.0 1.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.