NBA games

NY @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
117–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY29322927117
WSH35282233118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (WSH) / 4 (NY) games this season
NY away
home WSH
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 28 27 1 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 22 12 4
OG Anunoby S 28 14 4 3
Tyler Kolek 17 13 1 2
Cameron Payne 20 12 0 1
Pacome Dadiet 17 10 3 0
Mikal Bridges S 32 8 3 3
Precious Achiuwa 15 6 4 0
T.J. Warren 7 2 1 0
Josh Hart S 25 2 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 18 16 1 5
Jared Butler 23 14 0 5
Johnny Davis 27 14 2 5
Kyle Kuzma S 17 12 3 3
Justin Champagnie 18 11 2 0
Taylor Funk 14 9 5 2
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 17 8 2 0
Kyshawn George S 22 8 4 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 16 7 4 1
Bub Carrington S 22 7 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
2 Josh Hart NY
9%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH
8%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
6 OG Anunoby NY
7%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
8 Marvin Bagley III WSH
7%
9 Precious Achiuwa NY
6%
10 Jericho Sims NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
20%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 22.3 2.9 4.1
2 Miles McBride NY 19.9 2.3 3.8
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.4 10.4 1.6
4 Cameron Payne NY 15.0 3.4 5.3
5 Precious Achiuwa NY 11.6 7.7 2.0
6 Mikal Bridges NY 11.4 3.8 1.2
7 Jordan Poole WSH 11.4 2.6 3.4
8 Tyler Kolek NY 10.3 3.8 4.9
9 Kyle Kuzma WSH 10.3 4.8 2.8
10 Landry Shamet NY 9.9 3.1 1.6
11 Kyshawn George WSH 9.1 3.5 2.2
12 OG Anunoby NY 9.0 4.6 1.0
13 Bub Carrington WSH 8.8 4.2 1.8
14 Marvin Bagley III WSH 6.3 4.0 1.2
15 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 6.1 5.3 1.6
16 Jared Butler WSH 5.7 1.2 3.6
17 Ariel Hukporti NY 5.5 3.9 0.8
18 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 5.1 2.3 1.0
19 Josh Hart NY 4.9 3.3 2.4
20 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.7 2.9 0.8
21 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.7 1.3 0.6
22 Jericho Sims NY 4.3 6.3 0.6
23 Johnny Davis WSH 3.4 1.6 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.