NBA games

PHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
99–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2035162899
ORL27312729114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (ORL) / 5 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ORL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 23 17 4 2
Ricky Council IV 21 13 1 0
Andre Drummond S 26 12 20 1
Caleb Martin 24 10 4 2
KJ Martin S 24 9 3 0
Guerschon Yabusele 17 9 6 2
Reggie Jackson 14 7 2 3
Lester Quinones 11 6 3 2
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 16 5 2 3
Adem Bona 9 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 24 21 6 3
Jalen Suggs S 24 12 4 7
Jett Howard 17 11 0 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 21 10 7 1
Gary Harris 15 9 0 1
Anthony Black 18 8 2 8
Tristan da Silva 11 6 4 1
Franz Wagner S 24 6 1 1
Goga Bitadze 11 6 7 0
Jonathan Isaac 7 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:54 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 2-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
22%
2 KJ Martin PHI
21%
3 Andre Drummond PHI
21%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
19%
5 Eric Gordon PHI
16%
6 Caleb Martin PHI
0%
7 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
0%
8 Justin Edwards PHI
0%
9 Adem Bona PHI
0%
10 Reggie Jackson PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
17%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 14.0 1.7 3.8
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.0 3.0 1.2
3 Andre Drummond PHI 8.2 10.6 0.9
4 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 7.9 4.4 1.4
5 KJ Martin PHI 7.7 3.4 1.3
6 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.4 3.5 1.3
7 Caleb Martin PHI 5.8 2.4 1.1
8 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.7 1.9 2.2
9 Lester Quinones PHI 5.3 2.1 0.5
10 Eric Gordon PHI 4.9 1.4 0.5
11 Justin Edwards PHI 4.8 2.1 0.5
12 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.0 1.3 1.4
13 Kyle Lowry PHI 3.9 2.0 3.1
14 Adem Bona PHI 2.6 2.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.