NBA games

SAC @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
91–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2018312291
LAC30352028113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (LAC) / 4 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 27 24 9 5
Doug McDermott 25 14 5 0
Keegan Murray S 29 11 7 3
Keon Ellis S 20 10 0 0
DeMar DeRozan S 25 9 1 1
Boogie Ellis 12 6 1 0
Mason Jones 20 5 4 3
Colby Jones 16 4 1 1
Jordan McLaughlin S 28 3 3 5
Isaac Jones 13 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Miller 28 21 3 2
Amir Coffey 23 18 2 1
Terance Mann S 11 12 2 0
Bones Hyland S 26 10 6 3
Kobe Brown 28 10 8 6
Norman Powell S 14 10 3 1
Braxton Key 11 9 3 0
Elijah Harkless 14 8 3 1
Ivica Zubac S 15 8 3 1
Alondes Williams 15 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes 14-foot two point shot (Jordan McLaughlin assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
3 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
8 Norman Powell LAC
8%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
8%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
55%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.2 11.3 5.8
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 17.6 5.8 3.3
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 15.7 3.5 4.1
4 James Harden LAC 15.0 3.3 7.8
5 Keegan Murray SAC 14.0 3.7 1.8
6 Norman Powell LAC 10.2 2.1 1.7
7 Kai Jones LAC 10.1 6.0 1.6
8 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 10.0 3.2 3.8
9 Malik Monk SAC 8.7 3.2 1.4
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 8.4 6.3 1.4
11 Keon Ellis SAC 8.3 3.0 2.6
12 Jordan Miller LAC 8.3 2.8 1.6
13 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 7.4 2.2 0.8
14 Amir Coffey LAC 6.6 2.0 0.7
15 Alex Len SAC 6.2 4.6 1.7
16 Kobe Brown LAC 6.0 5.0 1.4
17 Terance Mann LAC 5.9 2.6 0.9
18 Kris Dunn LAC 5.8 3.0 1.1
19 Alondes Williams LAC 4.6 2.0 3.1
20 Isaac Jones SAC 4.5 2.5 1.2
21 Mason Jones SAC 3.7 2.4 0.6
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.6 1.6 0.7
23 Isaiah Crawford SAC 3.5 2.2 0.7
24 Colby Jones SAC 3.2 1.4 1.7
25 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.0 3.1 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.